Penn State vs. UCLA: A Gridiron Tale of Two Teams
The upcoming matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the UCLA Bruins presents a stark contrast in team dynamics and recent performance. Questions are arising about Penn State quarterback Drew Allar. After a heartbreaking loss to Oregon, where Allar threw a costly interception in overtime, Penn State seeks redemption against a struggling UCLA team. This article delves into the historical context, current team conditions, key storylines, and expert predictions surrounding this game.
The Lay of the Land: Odds and Trends
As of October 3, 2025, the betting spread favored the Nittany Lions by a significant margin.
- Spread: Nittany Lions -24.5 (-106), Bruins +24.5 (-110)
- Money Line: Nittany Lions -2273, Bruins +1386
- Total: Over 48.5 (-105), Under 48.5 (-107)
Several trends further highlight the disparity between the two teams:
- Penn State has not lost to an unranked opponent since 2021.
- PSU has failed to cover the spread five consecutive times.
- UCLA has gone 2-8 in its last 10 home games.
However, it's crucial to remember that these data points were collected on Oct. 3, 2025, and may have changed since writing.
Injury Woes
Both teams are dealing with injuries that could impact the game's outcome.
Read also: Understanding Penn State Requirements
Penn State Nittany Lions:
- Wide receiver Kaden Saunders is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
- Wide receiver Lyrick Samuel is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
- Wide receiver Peter Gonzalez is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
- Quarterback Bekhem Kritza is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
- Wide receiver Josiah Brown is questionable with an undisclosed injury.
UCLA Bruins:
- Quarterback Karson Gordon is out with an undisclosed injury.
- Offensive tackle Jaylan Jeffers is out with an undisclosed injury.
- Offensive lineman KD Arnold is out with an undisclosed injury.
- Defensive lineman Tyler Partlow is out with an undisclosed injury.
These injuries, particularly those affecting UCLA's offensive line and quarterback, could exacerbate their existing struggles.
UCLA's Tumultuous Season
There are nightmare seasons, and then there’s whatever the UCLA Bruins are experiencing in 2025. The Bruins are mired in a disastrous 0-4 start. After a disastrous 0-4 start, the program has parted ways with its head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator. The Bruins fired head coach Deshaun Foster three games into the season, and named former Fresno State head coach Tim Skipper as the interim. The Nico Iamaleava experiment has been a bust - he’s thrown four touchdowns to three interceptions while averaging a measly 6.4 yards per attempt. The Bruins have one of the worst defenses in the nation. They rank dead last in success rate allowed, failing to stop the run (134th) or the pass (130th). UCLA was the only FBS team never to lead in a game this season entering today.
Penn State's Quest for Redemption
No. 7 Penn State visits UCLA for its first road game of 2025, which, in hindsight, the schedule plotted perfectly. After the double-overtime loss to Oregon, the Nittany Lions need to get out of State College. Even better, they face a benign Big Ten opponent that might not win a game this season. Last week represented the fork in Penn State’s season. Saturday we’ll begin learning which road the Nittany Lions took.
Allar's Opportunity
Twenty years ago, Penn State cleansed itself of a bitter loss to Michigan by turning its visit to Illinois the following week into a therapy session. Quarterback Michael Robinson took the Nittany Lions into an amped night game at Memorial Stadium and made sure they left with scalps. Penn State scored 56 points in the first half (Robinson threw four TD passes and ran for two) in a 63-10 win. Drew Allar needs a similar release.
Didn’t expect this to be a pivotal game for Allar, but here we are. He hasn’t completed 60 percent of his passes since the opener and hasn’t thrown for 220 yards yet this season. This is a psychological game for Allar more than mechanical. He needs a get-right performance not just for himself but also for the confidence of those around him.
Read also: A Look at Penn State's Enrollment Numbers
Dominating the Ground Game
Franklin hinted at offensive changes this week. Perhaps that includes a personnel move or two on the offensive line or a different recipe for the passing game. What it should include, though, is a personal challenge to run for 300 yards. UCLA’s run defense ranks last in the Big Ten and 131st in the country. The Bruins’ four opponents, including New Mexico and Northwestern, averaged 232 yards rushing per game and 5.6 per carry. UCLA has allowed 12 touchdown drives of 60+ yards. If Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton both don’t rush for at least 100, that would be alarming. It’s beyond time for Allen to be the 20-touch running back in Penn State’s offense, with Singleton deployed as the changeup until he reclaims his footing. Allen is the offense’s alpha now and should be treated as such.
Spotlight on Key Players
Penn State Nittany Lions:
- Kaytron Allen: As the alpha of the offense, Allen needs to be the focal point of the running game.
- Nolan Rucci: Penn State’s right tackle thrived in the postseason after replacing Anthony Donkoh on short notice. But he has lost more than his share of one-on-one duels this season and was the lowest-ranked lineman in the Oregon game, according to Pro Football Focus. Donkoh certainly could move back outside, where he’s likely a better fit, if the situation continues.
UCLA Bruins:
- Nico Iamaleava: UCLA built its offense, and budget, around the transfer quarterback from Tennessee. Neither has worked. Granted, Iamaleava is doing most of the heavy lifting. He is responsible for 77 percent of the Bruins’ offense, is their leading rusher and has the only rushing touchdown. Also, he has no offensive line. On Saturday, he meets Penn State’s Dani Dennis-Sutton, who will be aching for a sack after Oregon shut him out.
- Kwazi Gilmer: The Bruins’ leading receiver has decent size (6-2, 190 pounds) and some playmaking ability. Penn State cornerback AJ Harris, who played a fine game vs. Oregon, can test his coverage skills vs. Gilmer.
- Gary Smith III: He dominates the middle of UCLA’s defensive line at 6-5, 340 pounds and has made 1.5 tackles for loss. Interesting leverage matchup for Penn State’s interior line.
Expert Predictions
Several analysts have weighed in on the likely outcome of the game:
- Mark Wogenrich: Penn State 34, UCLA 7
- Chase Fisher: Penn State 31, UCLA 6
- Amanda Vogt: Penn State 42, UCLA 9
- Chris: Penn State 56, UCLA 7
- Lando: Penn State 31, UCLA 7
- Tim: Penn State 34, UCLA 10
- Bennett: Penn State 27, UCLA 10
- Colin: Penn State 31, UCLA 10
- Patrick: Penn State 45, UCLA 10
The consensus is that Penn State will win comfortably, with most predicting a multi-touchdown victory. However, some analysts caution against a slow start due to the cross-country travel and emotional letdown following the Oregon loss.
The Unthinkable Happens
UCLA did the unthinkable. A week after losing a thriller to Oregon in overtime, James Franklin & Co. lost to an 0-4 UCLA team. The Bruins entered as a 24.5-point underdog, with +1300 odds to win. Prior to today, there had been four teams all-time to have been 0-4 or worse and beat an AP top 10 team:
- UTEP (0-6) beats No. 7 BYU in 1985
- Tulane (0-4) beats No. 6 Navy in 1958
- Purdue (0-4) beats No. 2 Michigan State in 1953
- Pittsburgh (0-5) beats No. 3 Fordham in 1941
Below we've further broken down just how historic this upset is, from both a statistical and odds perspective. Let's take a look:
Read also: Penn State Admission: Average ACT
- Entering today, UCLA had lost 16 games in a row vs AP top 10 opponents; their last such win came in 2010 vs Texas- in that game, the Bruins completed 5-of-9 passes (Johnathan Franklin had 19 rushes for 118 yards).
- Teams that were 0-4 entered the day 0-24 vs AP top 10 opponents since 1978.
- Entering today, teams that closed as 24+ point underdogs were 28-144-2 (W-L-T) against AP top 10 teams since 1978.
- Entering today, teams that were 24+ point underdogs were 6-244-1 against Big Ten teams ranked in the AP top 10 since 1978.
- Penn State is now 1-17 under James Franklin when trailing by 20+ points, the lone win coming in the 2016 Big Ten Championship game vs Wisconsin (down 28-7, won 38-31).
- Entering today, Nico Iamaleava's career high in rush yards was 65; he finished the day with 128.
- Nico Iamaleava was responsible for 5 TDs (3 rush, 2 pass) for the first time in his career.
tags: #penn #state #ucla #football #spread #history
