College Football Preseason Rankings: A Historical Overview

The Associated Press (AP) Poll has been a significant factor in college football for decades, influencing perceptions, shaping narratives, and, in the modern era, impacting College Football Playoff (CFP) selections. Examining the history of preseason rankings provides valuable insights into the expectations surrounding teams and their subsequent performance throughout the season.

The Anatomy of the AP Poll

The AP Poll is a weekly ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the United States, voted on by a panel of 65 media members who cover college football. These rankings, which have been around since 1936, have become a staple in the sport, influencing everything from fan perceptions to recruiting. The poll begins with a preseason ranking, setting the stage for the season.

Texas Takes the Top Spot in 2025

In a historic moment, the Texas Longhorns will begin the 2025 college football season ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25. This marks the first time the Longhorns have achieved the top preseason ranking in the poll's history. Texas edged out Penn State by a narrow margin of five points, making it the closest preseason vote since 1998. The Longhorns received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points, securing the top spot and continuing the Southeastern Conference's (SEC) streak of having the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year.

"Arch Mania" Fuels Expectations

The anticipation surrounding Texas is fueled by "Arch Mania," referring to quarterback Arch Manning, who is now the team's undisputed starter. The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since 2021, winning 25 of their past 30 games and reaching two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 for four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October and reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.

Despite losing twelve players to the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, the Longhorns have bolstered their roster through elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal, addressing concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense also returns plenty of talent.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian acknowledged the high expectations, stating, "But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program… But I also say we're the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that's competing for championships year in and year out."

A Challenging Start

The Longhorns face a significant test right away, opening their season on August 30 against defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State. This game is a rematch of last season's College Football Playoff semifinal, which Ohio State won 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl.

The Top 10 and Conference Representation

Following Texas and Penn State in the top 10 are:

Ohio State
Clemson
Georgia
Notre Dame
Oregon
Alabama
LSU
Miami

The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, the most ever by a conference. The Big Ten has two of the top three teams and six teams in the Top 25. The Big 12 has four ranked teams, led by Arizona State at No. 11, while the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) has three, including Clemson.

Teams to Watch

Several teams outside the traditional powerhouses are generating buzz in the preseason rankings:

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Arizona State (No. 11): The defending conference champion Sun Devils earn their highest preseason ranking since 1998.
Illinois (No. 12): The Fighting Illini achieve their best preseason ranking since 1990.
SMU (No. 16): Returning quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, SMU is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years.
Boise State (No. 25): The Mountain West's Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane in 2023.

Early Season Matchups to Watch

Week 1 features several high-profile matchups that will immediately impact the rankings and playoff picture:

No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State: A rematch of last season's CFP semifinal.
No. 8 Alabama at Florida State: A clash of traditional powers.
No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson: A battle of Death Valley rivals.
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami: A classic rivalry renewed.
No. 17 Kansas State vs. No. 22 Iowa State: A Big 12 showdown in Dublin, Ireland.
No. 13 South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech: An ACC vs. SEC matchup in Atlanta, GA.

Historical Trends and the Preseason No. 1

While earning the No. 1 preseason ranking is a significant achievement, history suggests it doesn't guarantee a national championship. Since 2000, only two teams that started the season at No. 1 in the preseason rankings have gone on to win the national championship: USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017.

Preseason No. 1 Teams Since 2000: Where They Finished

2000: Nebraska (finished No. 8); National Champion: Oklahoma (preseason No. 19)
2001: Florida (finished No. 3); National Champion: Miami (preseason No. 2)
2002: Miami (finished No. 2); National Champion: Ohio State (preseason No. 13)
2003: Oklahoma (finished No. 3); National Champion: USC (preseason No. 8) - BCS national champion LSU finished No. 2 in the AP Top 25 poll after starting at No. 14
2004: USC (finished No. 1); National Champion: USC
2005: USC (finished No. 2); National Champion: Texas (preseason No. 2)
2006: Ohio State (finished No. 2); National Champion: Florida (preseason No. 7)
2007: USC (finished No. 3); National Champion: LSU (preseason No. 2)
2008: Georgia (finished No. 13); National Champion: Florida (preseason No. 5)
2009: Florida (finished No. 3); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 5)
2010: Alabama (finished No. 10); National Champion: Auburn (preseason No. 22)
2011: Oklahoma (finished No. 16); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 2)
2012: USC (finished unranked); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 2)
2013: Alabama (finished No. 7); National Champion: Florida State (preseason No. 11)
2014: Florida State (finished No. 5); National Champion: Ohio State (preseason No. 5)
2015: Ohio State (finished No. 4); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 3)
2016: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Clemson (preseason No. 2)
2017: Alabama (finished No. 1); National Champion: Alabama
2018: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Clemson (preseason No. 2)
2019: Clemson (finished No. 2); National Champion: LSU (preseason No. 6)
2020: Clemson (finished No. 3); National Champion: Alabama (preseason No. 3)
2021: Alabama (finished No. 2); National Champion: Georgia (preseason No. 5)
2022: Alabama (finished No. 5); National Champion: Georgia (preseason No. 3)
2023: Georgia (finished No. 4); National Champion: Michigan (preseason No. 2)
2024: Georgia (finished No. 6); National Champion: Ohio State (preseason No. 2)

This data suggests that while starting at No. 1 is an advantage, it's more important to be in the top five to have a realistic shot at the national championship.

Programs with the Most Weeks Ranked No. 1

The following programs have spent the most weeks ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll:

Ohio State: 72
Oklahoma: 67
USC: 63
Notre Dame: 62
Alabama: 59
Texas: 58
Michigan: 54
Penn State: 51
Nebraska: 46
Tennessee: 45
LSU: 44
Georgia: 44
Florida State: 42
Florida: 41

The Broader Context of College Football Rankings

The AP Poll is one of several polls used to rank college football teams. Another prominent poll is the Coaches Poll. These polls, particularly the AP Poll, have been used to determine the national champion. Division I FBS football is the only NCAA sport for which the NCAA does not sanction a yearly championship event.

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