How to Fill Out Your NCAA Bracket: Tips and Strategies for March Madness Success

March Madness is a thrilling time of year when college basketball takes center stage. The NCAA Division I men’s and women’s basketball championship tournaments captivate audiences with their unpredictable nature and high stakes. Filling out a bracket is a fun, often free, and engaging way to participate in the excitement, even if you're not a die-hard sports fan. You’ve heard the name before. You know it’s about basketball. All teams are placed within a “bracket," in which they face off against an opponent (based on seeding) in a single-elimination game. Win and advance. Qualifying teams include those that have earned automatic bids by winning their respective conference championship tournament and those who have earned at-large bids, as selected by the appropriate NCAA committee. Each earns a “seed" numbered 1 through 16 - 1 is best - with the highest seeds playing the best seeds in each “regional” branch of the bracket. In total, there are four “regions” made up of matchups sorted during Selection Sunday. You’ll root for outcomes that are favorable to your bracket. This is one reason March Madness is such a thrilling event - you can quickly become a fan of the teams you’ve picked, even if you know next to nothing about them. Not to mention, every game is fast-paced and jam-packed with action. Even if you’re not a sports fan, March is a chance to feel like one. Whether you're aiming for the perfect bracket or simply want to beat your friends, here's a comprehensive guide to help you navigate the madness.

Understanding the Basics

Before diving into strategy, it's essential to understand the fundamental elements of an NCAA bracket. March Madness refers to the championship tournaments for NCAA Division I men’s and women’s basketball, respectively. The tournament features 68 teams, including those that automatically qualify by winning their conference tournaments and those selected by the NCAA committee to receive "at-large" bids. These teams are then organized into a bracket.

Seeds and Regions

Each team receives a "seed," ranking them from 1 to 16 within their region, with 1 being the strongest. The tournament bracket is divided into four "regions," each containing matchups sorted during Selection Sunday. The higher seeds are matched against lower seeds in the initial rounds.

Single-Elimination Format

Every game in the tournament is single-elimination, meaning the winner advances to the next round, and the loser is out. Because of the nature of such a large single-elimination tournament, every game matters. This format contributes to the tournament's unpredictability and excitement.

Filling Out Your Bracket: A Step-by-Step Guide

OK, I have a bracket. Filling out a bracket can seem daunting, especially with a lot of games and a lot of blank spaces. To start, let's start on the top left, with No. 1 Alabama vs. No. See that 1 next to Alabama? That's called a "seed," which indicates the strength of a team. The lower the seed, the stronger the team, in general. The 29-5 is the Crimson Tide's record - 29 wins and 5 losses - before the tournament started. Alabama plays the team listed below. That's Texas A&M-CC, which was 24-10. Whichever team you think will win, advance them to the next line here (or click the button to advance them in an online game). For this example, we'll choose the No. Nice work! Next up, do the same with Maryland and West Virginia.

Initial Assessment

Begin by reviewing each matchup and making your initial picks. Consider factors like team records. As mentioned before, the lower the seed, the stronger the team. Conversely, the higher the seed, the weaker the team. By strength, we mean the total number of quality wins leading up to the start of March Madness.

Account for Upsets

The beauty of March Madness is in its spontaneity. “Upset” wins - in which a higher seed team beats a lower seed team - are common. You should still pick upsets in the early rounds. The common advice will be take No. 12 seeds over No. 5 seeds, as they've won 35% of the time in the first round. Of note: No. 15 seeds have upset No. 2 seeds 11 times since 1985.

Advancing Teams

Whichever team you think will win, advance them to the next line here (or click the button to advance them in an online game). Continue this process for each game, gradually filling out your bracket until you reach the final matchup.

Strategies for Bracket Success

While luck plays a significant role, employing certain strategies can increase your chances of success.

Don't Overlook Top Seeds

While some years are wackier than others, top seeds are historically a good bet to win it all. According to Bracket Research, 34 of 39 winners of the NCAA Tournament going back to 1985 were 1, 2, or 3-seeds - and 25 were No. 1 seeds. This year, the four No. 1 seeds are Auburn (South region), Duke (East), Houston (Midwest) and Florida (West).

Read also: Navigating UCLA Classes

Commit to a Cinderella

You should still pick upsets in the early rounds. One 12 seed that already looks to be a popular pick: UC San Diego over Michigan in Denver. The intrigue: That could mean more upsets, as lower-seeded teams could score in bunches out of nowhere.

Consider Conference Tournament Results

Conference tournament results can be helpful for the first rounds, but not once we get to the Final Four. Of the last 11 winners, eight did not win their conference tournaments.

Evaluate Team Injuries

Duke, which entered the ACC Tournament No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll, lost star forwards Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown to injuries during the tournament. The NCAA seemed to have confidence in at least Flagg's return, as the Blue Devils still earned a No. 1 seed, but do you?

Follow the Threes

An impressive 290 teams have fired off 20 or more 3-point attempts per game this season, which is 34 more teams than last season and the highest of all time, per the NCAA. If you want to swim against the current: Michigan State, a No. 2 seed in the South, has now made the NCAA Tournament 27 straight times and attempts just over 19 3-pointers per game.

Factor in First Four Performance

The First Four games, which give the four lowest-ranked teams in the field a chance to make the 64-team bracket, are Tuesday and Wednesday. For your Final Four you should pick at least one to win in the first round of 64 - it's happened every year since the First Four's inception in 2011 except for 2019.

Understanding Point Systems

You can accumulate points in every round, but they are not all evenly weighted. The closer the round is to the national championship game, the more points there are up for grabs. In addition to aiming for a perfect bracket, your goal is to accumulate as many points as possible.

Embrace Unpredictability

Nobody has ever filled out a perfect bracket and, as far as the NCAA can tell, only one person has ever even picked perfectly through the Sweet 16. Powerhouses with future NBA players are routinely upset by tiny schools that get hot, especially in the early rounds.

Advanced Strategies for Competitive Pools

For those participating in larger or more competitive pools, a more nuanced approach is required.

Contrarian Thinking

When you fill out a March Madness bracket, the optimal strategy usually isn’t just to pick who you think will win every game. The goal is to beat everyone else in your pool. That might sound like the same thing as picking all of the winners, but it’s not. Checking ownership one last time on either Wednesday night or Thursday morning before brackets lock will give you the best sense of who the public is picking. From there, you can compare those percentages to sites like KenPom, TeamRankings, or sportsbook odds to figure out a team’s true chances of winning the natty and build your bracket out from there.

Pool Demographics

It’s also important to personally reflect upon your pool’s demographics. I went to the University of Illinois, so some of my pools skew very Illini-heavy.

Pool Size and Strategy

The answer depends primarily on your pool and who you picked as your champion. If you’re in a pool with tens of thousands of opponents and you picked Duke to win the title, you probably need to project some chaos elsewhere to have a chance to win. If you pick a team like Gonzaga (as a No. 8 seed in 2025, to be clear, not the 2021 version in the previous example) to win it all, you probably don’t need to get too crazy elsewhere because you won’t need to beat very many people to take home the grand prize if the Zags win it all. However, you probably do need to get contrarian somewhere to win a big pool. In small pools, a fairly chalky bracket (ideally using KenPom or sportsbook odds as chalk instead of just seed lines) should be close to optimal. If your pool only has ~10 people in it, it might be best to just pick Duke vs. Auburn in the national championship game, even if it’s not the most exciting pick in the world.

Scoring Settings

Even that needs a caveat though, as some pools reward players for picking more upsets. If you get the same amount of points for correctly picking a Round-of-64 game regardless of who wins, then you should probably pick a lot of the better seeds to advance. However, if you get bonus points for picking an upset (e.g., you get as many points as the seed of the team that wins), then you probably should consider picking some upsets.

Injury Analysis

Duke’s Cooper Flagg - the likely Wooden Award winner and presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft - twisted his ankle in the ACC Tournament semifinals. Duke and the ACC both relayed to the NCAA that Flagg would be ready for the tournament, and there were reports from the day after the injury that he was moving around well at team shootaround. But Flagg is arguably the single most valuable player in the country, and it would be massive if he’s unable to go. Houston’s J’Wan Roberts suffered an ankle injury in Houston’s first Big 12 Tournament game and missed the rest of the tourney (Houston still won). He noted in postgame interviews after the injury that he wouldn’t play the rest of the conference tournament in anticipation of being ready for the big tournament. Iowa State’s Keshon Gilbert has been ruled out for the NCAA Tournament. He’s had a tumultuous last two months dealing with injury (and rumors of something else, possibly mental, behind the scenes), but began the year as Iowa State’s best player. The Cyclones will be at less than full strength all tournament without him. Tyrese Hunter was in a boot for Memphis’ AAC Tournament championship game against UAB and the broadcast team mentioned they hadn’t heard great things. Texas Tech’s Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian missed the Big 12 semifinal game against Arizona but are expected to play in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Both players have been banged up for a few weeks now and will be operating at less than 100%, and they could play less than normal minutes, especially if TTU opens up a double-digit lead. Williams is arguably their second-best player and McMillian is one of the best shooters in the country. Kentucky’s Jaxson Robinson hasn’t played since Feb. 26. Alabama’s Grant Nelson suffered a knee injury in the Crimson Tide’s SEC semifinal loss to Florida and is seeing a knee specialist to get more information. He’s been battling through injury for a while but evidently aggravated it this weekend. Baylor starting C Josh Ojianwuna is out for the year, leaving Norchad Omier as the Bears’ only big man.

Seed Analysis

This is arguably the strongest group of No. 1 seeds ever. In fact, Duke has the single highest KenPom adjusted efficiency margin since 2002, and Florida, Houston, and Auburn are all in the top six. Duke’s rating hinges heavily on Flagg’s health and Houston’s (to a lesser extent) on Roberts’, but if healthy, there’s a pretty straightforward argument that this is the best group of top seeds we’ve seen this century. All four No. Colorado State is favored over Memphis and likely would be even if Tyrese Hunter plays. CSU is rated higher than Memphis on KenPom, and betting markets have been lower on Memphis than KenPom all season. UC San Diego is one of the best No. 12 seeds in recent memory. The Tritons ran through the Big West and rank 36th on KenPom, led by star Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones. UCSD is currently a 2.5-point underdog against Michigan; in most pools, it’s not necessary to pick them, but if you get rewarded for picking upsets, go ahead and take the Tritons. Similarly, VCU is an abnormally strong No. 11 seed and are only small underdogs to BYU, so they are another easy take if your pool rewards you for picking seed-line upsets. Gonzaga is a fringe top-10 team in the country but is a No. 8 seed. The Zags are ninth on KenPom, 11th on BartTorvik, and eighth on EvanMiya. The metrics love them, but their résumé wasn’t good enough to get a higher seed. Houston is the No. The reigning back-to-back champion UConn Huskies have had a rough year. They’ve dealt with injuries to important pieces at times but haven’t really gelled even when healthy. They are fairly seeded as a No. 8 seed based on KenPom, but it’s worth noting the betting markets have been higher on UConn than metric-based sites all year (in Round 1, KenPom has UConn by 1, but the consensus spread is Huskies -4.5).

Team Recommendations Based on Pool Size

Finally, we’ll touch on some specific team recommendations based on pool size.

Small pool (<25 people): This is the strongest group of No. 1 seeds in recent memory. The worst No. 1 seed on KenPom is still 2.9 adjusted points per 100 possessions better than the next-closest team. There’s no reason to get cute here.
Medium (25-100): I’m still taking a No. 1 seed in any pool under 100 people. If you want to be very slightly contrarian, perhaps you take Florida instead of Duke, but again, with how strong this crop of No.
Large (100+): The strategy for this bucket will vary wildly based on exactly how many people are in your pool. If there are 200, I’m likely still taking a No. 1 seed, but perhaps opting for Houston-Florida instead of Duke-Auburn (pending public pick percentages - it’s possible I am underestimating at this point how owned Florida will be relative to Duke) and maybe getting slightly contrarian somewhere smaller (Gonzaga to the Sweet 16, for example). If your pool has 1,000 entrants, you will need to get contrarian somewhere.
Very large (thousands of entrants): Gonzaga is going to be the sexiest “contrarian pick” given they rank ninth on KenPom but are sitting as a No. 8 seed in their region. Louisville is also a strong No. 8 seed (KenPom No. 23), and Auburn is actually the lowest-rated No. 1 seed on KP despite being the top-rated overall team by the tournament selection committee. Maybe you take Gonzaga to win it all or Louisville to the Final Four, but checking/gauging ownership for the pool you are playing on is paramount here. You certainly still can take a No.

Online Bracket Challenges

NCAA’s Official Bracket Challenge cultivates a diverse community. You can fill out a bracket virtually through NCAA.com’s Official Bracket Challenge. Sign up for free, if you haven’t already done so, and start picking a winner for every matchup! Once your bracket is complete, watch those games live on TV or stream on the March Madness Live app.

Thinking about playing ESPN's Men's Tournament Challenge game but don't know where to start? We completely understand. Getting up to speed on college basketball for the NCAA tournament can be a difficult endeavor. But don't worry, filling out your bracket doesn't have to be a daunting task. ET, so get ready for the madness!

Playing is Simple

2. 3. Fill out your bracket (you can use "Quick Bracket" to fill one out in seconds with Autofill, Random, Smart Bracket, Popular).

Other Things You Can Do

2. 3. (Optional) Rename your bracket. On the "My Brackets" tab, click the gear icon to the right of your bracket name.

Autofill Bracket Options

Chalk (all favorites): Take the higher seed (1, 2, etc.) in every matchup, automatically, and hope for no upsets!
Random: It's like flipping a coin for each and every game! We'll randomly select a winner for you in each game.
Smart Bracket (powered by ESPN Analytics): Using ESPN Analytics to break down the games, we'll generate a bracket for you.
Popular: The "people's bracket" becomes your own, as the winners are picked based on which teams the majority of Tournament Challenge users chose.

Other Bracket Options

Finish My Bracket: Started your brackets but don't have the time to finish? Keep your current picks and let the computer fill in the rest. You can choose for the computer to make either random selections or use the Smart Bracket system to make selections.

Help with Making Your Picks

Seeds are there for a reason: The brackets are not created by randomly picking teams out of a hat -- the best teams are 1-seeds and the worst are 16-seeds. The selection committee tries its best to balance the field by making sure the best teams don't have to face each other until the later stages of the tournament. The chances of all four 1-seeds making it to the Final Four are considerably better than the chances of four 11-seeds making it there. So, when in doubt, go with the chalk pick (the better-seeded team).
Upsets do happen: In 2018, for the first time, a 16-seed defeated a 1-seed (UMBC over Virginia) -- and did so in blowout fashion, winning by 20 points. Additionally, an 11-seed (Loyola-Chicago) made it all the way to the Final Four. Traditionally, 12-seeds have far exceeded expectations against 5-seeds, which is why it is commonplace to see Tournament Challenge participants select at least one 12-seed to advance at least a couple of rounds.
Unpredictability is par for the course: In 2019, 12-seeded Oregon and 13-seeded UC Irvine both pulled off upsets and ended up squaring off for a chance to make the Sweet 16. However, apart from that game, only one other team outside of chalk (5-seeded Auburn) made it to the second week of play. The moral of the story: Don't be afraid to pick upsets, but don't pick too many. Although a Cinderella always seems to crash the ball, there aren't that many glass slippers to pass around.
Traditional powers do tend to rise to the top: UConn has won the tournament in back-to-back seasons. Villanova has won twice in the past eight tournaments. Kansas, North Carolina and Duke have also won it all during the past decade. Nobody should be surprised when perennial top-10 darlings make deep runs. They're called traditional powers for a reason.
Don't get too caught up with a team's record: You're likely to see a few teams with 20-plus wins squaring off with teams that are barely over .500. You're also likely to discover that the team with the worse record has a better seed. The reason for this is that not all teams play against the same level of competition. Good teams from smaller conferences (which are likely to get only a single team into the tournament) might load up on wins over lesser competition compared with middle-of-the-pack teams from power conferences (which will "get credit" for playing a tougher schedule). You can either trust the seeding process, which does get it right far more often than not, or take a look at the BPI, which ranks all the teams while factoring in the vast imbalance in scheduling.
The winner of these contests is often surprising: You can crunch all the numbers, analyze all the stats, memorize all the rosters and watch every single minute of ESPN's Champ Week to scout schools from less-publicized conferences; at the end of the day, once the ball is tipped, anything is possible. The person who gets his or her arm twisted into filling out a bracket and decides to pick only teams with animals as their mascots can end up with the trophy. That's what makes this such a fun ride.

The Reality of Perfection

The chances of having a perfect men's NCAA tournament bracket are so small that we're talking a 1 in 120.2 billion chance. That's "b" for a billion. Well, unless you're flipping a coin for all 63 games. But winning bragging rights in your Men's Bracket Challenge Game group against friends? Those odds are more in your favor. So, what does it take for that to happen?

Looking at recent winners in our Men's Bracket Challenge Game, we have some answers for you.

When filling out your MBCG bracket, you have to pick winners in 63 games. The nine MBCG victors picked the correct winner in 54, 50, 54, 51, 53, 47, 53, 49 and 51 games in their respective winning years. That's an average of 51.3 correct picks for the entire tournament. The nine winners "lost" a combined 105 games in their brackets. About those remaining losses? Thirty-one of those showed up in the second round.
If you rightly predict the title game teams, chances are you're looking down on almost everyone else on the leaderboard. That all sounds simple enough.
and 4. Don't worry if you miss one of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 games (or two, or three…). Moving onto the Final Four, the last nine BCG winners correctly picked 34 of the 36 Final Four teams: 2018 Cinderella Loyola Chicago and 2023 Miami (Fla.) the only misses. That's where the separation happens. It's one thing to have all eight Elite Eight teams.
You're not going to get every game right (probably!). You don't have to pick every big upset, either. Want more evidence of avoiding early-round worry? "Che 3" won the 2018 title despite picking Virginia to advance to the Elite Eight. It's all about timing. Later games are worth more points, so dropping a game or two or seven (or more!) in the first round won't necessarily eliminate you.

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