Decoding DonBest: A Comprehensive Guide to NCAA Football Odds

Understanding NCAA football odds can seem daunting, but with a clear explanation of the key components, anyone can learn to interpret the numbers and make informed betting decisions. DonBest.com is a valuable resource for odds, providing a comprehensive overview of the betting landscape. This guide will break down the elements of NCAA football odds, including the rotation number, point spread, moneyline, and over/under, and also explore betting trends and strategies.

Understanding the Odds

The term "odds" encompasses several components, including the point spread, moneyline, and over/under (often called "the total"). These elements are presented in a specific format for each matchup. Each matchup is listed in numerical order.

Rotation Number

Each college football matchup has a designated Home and Away team and both are given a rotation number. On DonBest, each matchup is listed in numerical order, with the time and date of the game displayed on the left. Next to the team names, you'll find two numbers: these are the rotation numbers assigned to each team. When placing a bet at a sportsbook, you simply need to mention the team’s number.

Point Spread

The point spread is a handicap used to even out the odds between two teams. Let’s say on a matchup between Ohio State and Wisconsin. This game may have Ohio State at -7.5 and Wisconsin at +7.5. The favorite is assigned a negative number (e.g., -7.5), representing the number of points they must win by to "cover the spread." The underdog receives a positive number (e.g., +7.5), indicating the number of points they can lose by and still "cover the spread."

For example, if you bet on Ohio State -7.5, they must win by 8 or more for you to collect your winnings. If you bet on Wisconsin +7.5, they can lose by 7 or fewer points, or win the game outright, for you to win your bet.

Sometimes you’ll find a spread listed as a whole number. When the spread is a whole number, the result may be a push. If the favorite and they win by 7, then the game is a tie, called a push. In the event of a push, all wagers are refunded.

Next to each spread number, you’ll often see a number like -110. This is the "vig" or juice, representing the amount you have to wager to make $100. In this case, you would have to wager $110 to potentially win $100.

Moneyline

The moneyline is a bet on which team will win outright. There is no spread. The moneyline works differently. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and a number. The underdog is listed with a positive sign and a number.

For example, if Ohio State is listed at -360 and Wisconsin at +280, a bettor would wager $360 to win $100 on Ohio State. A bet on Wisconsin would win $280 on a $100 wager. There is a correlation between the point spread and the moneyline, reflecting the perceived likelihood of each team winning.

Over/Under (Total)

The over/under, or total, is a bet on the combined total number of points scored by both teams in a game. The sportsbook sets a line, and you bet whether the actual total score will be over or under that number.

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

For example, if the over/under is set at 41, and Ohio State scores 24 and Wisconsin 20, the total would be 44 or over the 41. If the final score is Ohio State 15 and Wisconsin 20, the total would be 35 so the under would win. As with the point spread, if the total score lands exactly on the over/under number, the result is a push, and wagers are refunded.

Factors such as weather and the offensive and defensive capabilities of each team influence the total. Standard college football odds is the over/under. High-scoring teams and good offenses, the total might be around 41.

College Football Schedule and Matchups

The College Football Games played in the regular season are scheduled for 15 to 16 weeks, which begins in late August and ends in early December. The College Football Games listed on the matchups section for the Playoffs begin as early as the first week of December and conclude in January, usually the second Monday in the first month of the season. The matchups show games played from both the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). The College Football Matchups page lists all the Games in order of Rotation, which is produced by the sportsbooks. All matchup times are listed in Eastern Standard Time Zone (ET) on this matchup page.

Records and Streaks

The College Football Matchups Records section provides the Wins and Losses for each team and they’re also a great Streaks feature. The Win-Loss is broken up by overall record and either the away or home record, depending on who is the host or the visitor for the college football matchup. Although the majority of college football teams only play 12 regular season games, streaks and slumps do occur on the gridiron. The Streak section tells you how hot or cold a team is and is measured by Wins (W) and Losses (L). If a team wins six straight games, the Streak would read W-6. On the other side, a team off two consecutive defeats would see L-2 in their streak column.

Betting Trends: Following the Crowd or Fading the Public

If you’re curious of what other bettors are playing, the VegasInsider.com College Football Matchups is your direct source. The Betting Trends for College Football show percentages (%) up to 100 for three categories:

Spread (Point-Spread Bets)
Money (Money-Line Bets)
O/U (Total Bets)

The Spread percentage is for the point-spread while the Money is for money-line wagers and that field usually skews heavily to favorites since not many bettors expect huge upsets, especially when the point-spread is high. The O/U is the total and the Over is always listed on top of the Under in the last Betting Trend column. Similar to most sports, bettors tend to gravitate toward favorites and over wagers.

Discovering what the masses are betting is a great angle and some savvy bettors like to fade or go the opposite of the public. The term ‘contrarion’ is a sports betting term that’s often heard for those bettors. Sportsbooks aim for a 50/50 split on all bets, as they profit from the juice on each wager, usually -110.

Matchup History and ATS

What’s great about the Matchups is that VegasInsider.com shows all the data from previous games throughout the season. Plus, the Matchups page shows history on ATS results. In the sports betting world ATS stands for Against the Spread, which measures the profitability of a team for bettors in terms of the point-spread. Since most college football wagers are on the point-spread, the ATS outcome is important for bettors. The ATS column shows which team earned the Cover, plus it posts the Over or Under result as well. The Total result (Over-Under) shows the combined points scored in the game while the Cover result shows how many points the team exceeded the spread by. Along with the ATS history on the college football matchups, you can also view Line Movements and Betting Trend movements for each game. Plus, you can get a quick Recap as well.

Strategies for Betting on Totals

Betting on totals in college football requires a different approach than betting on sides (point spreads). Here are some key considerations:

Key Numbers

One of the first things to learn when betting totals are the key numbers. Many bettors can tell you that -3, -6, or -7 are all key numbers when betting football sides but can’t name any key numbers when selecting totals.

Scoring Trends

With the increase in passing and the rule changes favoring the offense, the average NFL team has seen scoring steadily rise over the last 20 seasons. In 2000, the average NFL team score was 20.7 points per game. 2019 the average had reached 22.8ppg. This rise in scoring has forced bookmakers to constantly battle the public, who are usually taking the over in every game.

Weather Conditions

Always know the weather. This is easy to remember when betting a solo event like Monday Night Football, however, when it’s college football Saturday, there are 60 games on the board and bullets are flying, it can be easy to forget. One great College football spot is around week eight or nine when it starts to get cold. In freezing temperatures the football feels like a brick, hands get numb and passes are dropped, college kickers who are always unreliable become dreadful. Many coaches refuse to even attempt normally makeable kicks and choose to punt into the end zone. Keep an eye on the big 10 teams (Midwest) as well as the Northeast and East Coast teams.

Halftime Adjustments: Middling and Getting Out

Know how to set up a “middle” or “get out” of your total at halftime. Here is an example of setting up a middle: The Eagles are playing the Saints and you bet over 47 pre-game. The first half is a wild one and both teams turned in a few explosive plays, as the Saints head to the locker room up 21-17. Now, just because the teams scored 38 first half points does not mean the sportsbook will set the second half total at 38. The second half total is exactly half of the pre-game total, plus or minus a point or two. In this example the books second half line would likely be around 24. If you add 24 to the 38 points the teams already have, the new game total is 62. If you bet Under 62 at halftime, you now hold two tickets, Over 47 and Under 62. This is called a “middle” where one ticket will always cash and you have a chance to cash both tickets (if the game lands between 48-61, hitting the “middle”). These are very low risk wagers that in the long term will be some of the best you can place in all of sports betting.

Here is an example of how to “get out” of a total bet. The Packers are playing the Bears in a cold December game. You hold an over 40 pre-game ticket. As you watch the first half unfold, it looks like an under style game, as both teams struggle to move the ball. Both teams head into the locker room tied 10-10 and you don’t feel great about your ticket.

Differences Between NFL and NCAAF Totals

Understanding the difference between NFL and NCAAF totals. The college game has a number of rule changes (such as the clock stopping every 1st down) that drastically change the betting totals. In addition, over the past few seasons many schools have utilized the up-tempo spread offense made famous by Chip Kelly’s Oregon Ducks. With the offense rushing to the line to snap the ball every 10 seconds, the defenses get worn down and wide running lanes appear. It is commonplace for Big12 games to surpass 80 points with many schools running the Air-Raid passing offenses. (Big ups to Mike Leach!) After taking some years to adopt, even the SEC is now playing wide open offense, with former LSU/Alabama matchups being 9-6 or 6-3, last season Burrow and Tua went score for score in a great 46-41 game. Sportsbooks place lower limits on totals because they are much more beatable.

The Thrill of Totals Betting

Some NFL games eclipse their total in the third quarter, while side bettors are sweating out the spread in the fourth quarter, you are enjoying the dramatic finish already a winner. Last season the 49ers played a 48-46 thriller against the Saints that cashed the over in the second quarter! Savvy bettors watching the pre-game weather were betting that game down from 40.

Additional Betting Options

Beyond the main types of bets, a variety of other options exist:

Parlays: A bet on two or more teams or outcomes where the original stake and winnings are reinvested on the next wager. All selections must be correct for the parlay to win. In the event of a push or a game cancellation, the parlay reverts to the next lower number
Teasers: A bet on two or more teams where the line on each team is adjusted in the favor of the bettor. Teaser bets in football are usually 6, 6.5 or 7 points to your advantage.
Prop (Proposition) Bet : A special wager offered by the sportsbook on unique and various topics. These wagers can be on sporting events, politics, and even trial outcomes.
First-Half/Second-Half Betting: Wagers placed specifically on the score or outcome of the first or second half of a game.
In-Game Betting: Betting on games as they are in progress, with odds that update dynamically.

Expert Tips and Strategies

Bet Early: My suggestion is always try to bet as early as you possibly can, getting your work done. The sooner the number comes out the sooner you can bet that number, and the better opinion you have the better number you’re going to get. For example, it’s much better to lay 2.5 in an NFL game than lay 3 as there’s a gigantic difference in your win percentage on those two numbers.
Understand Market Numbers: Another important part is market numbers. If the market is bearing 4.5 everywhere and your guy has 5.5, there’s just no use laying it, you’d be better passing. There’s certainly no use buying that point or buying a half point. The only place where half a point is of any value is on or off 3 in the NFL. I’d lay $1.25 or maybe even a $1.30 in that kind of situation.
Don't Always Middle: Switching to when the numbers really run, and this happens in college football. If you bet a college football total over 60 and it runs to 66, so many people would say bet it all back and middle it. That’s not something I’d agree with. The reason for that is with the number at 66 everyone can now bet that number, but no one can grab over 60 because you have that. Now, we know value doesn’t always count as a win, but I do suggest you bet some of your money back up to about 20% every five points. If it did move 10 points, I’d probably bet about 40% back because you’d then benefit from having such a large middle. The bigger the middle, the more I would bet back. An example of this would be if you knew it was going to go up and admitted you didn’t like it over, but you thought the rest of the world would. In the Monday night football game you could bet over 48.5 and know everyone else will bet over. It goes to 51 and you wanted to bet the same amount back, that would be fine. If that’s planned and that’s the way you wanted to bet then that’s the way you should bet.
Avoid Buying Points to Middle: How does it work if you get the worst of the number? What happens if you bet that game over the 48.5 and it doesn’t go up, but it goes down 47.5. You don’t want to middle yourself, that’s the worst feeling you could have in that predicament. Again, I would never suggest buying a half point or a point in that spot to try to get back to even.
Treat it Like the Stock Market: Sports betting is similar to a stock market, but the problem is it’s not a gradual win, sometimes it’s 100% lose or 100% win.

tags: #donbest #com #ncaa #football #odds #explained