NCAA Tournament History: Examining the Legacy of the 3 Seed

The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, often called March Madness, is renowned for its unpredictability and captivating upsets. Among the most intriguing matchups is when a 3 seed faces a 14 seed, a scenario that has produced its fair share of memorable moments and bracket-busting surprises. This article explores the historical performance of 3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, with a particular focus on the University of Kentucky's experiences as a 3 seed and the phenomenon of 14-seed upsets.

Historical Performance of 3 Seeds

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded its field size in 1985, 3 seeds have compiled a combined record of 287-152 (65.4%) in tournament games. While they haven't dominated the tournament, they have secured the national championship on four occasions. These championship-winning 3 seeds were Michigan (1989), Syracuse (2003), Florida (2006), and UConn (2011).

In the round of 64 games, 3 seeds have an impressive 133-23 (85.3%) record against 14 seeds. However, the possibility of an upset always looms large, adding excitement and drama to the tournament.

Kentucky's Experience as a 3 Seed

The Kentucky Wildcats, a storied program with a rich basketball tradition, have been a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament on four occasions since 1985. Examining their performance in these tournaments provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities that come with being a 3 seed.

1994 NCAA Tournament

In the 1993-94 season, Kentucky led the nation in 3-pointers made (301, tied with Arkansas) and attempted (857). Guided by leading scorers Tony Delk (16.6 points) and Rodrick Rhodes (14.6), Kentucky won each of its conference tournament games that year by at least 12 points and made it to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. UK knocked off Tennessee State by 13 points in its first-round game, but the Cats lost by 12 points in the round of 32 to 6 seed Marquette.

1999 NCAA Tournament

In 1999, Tubby Smith’s second season as the UK coach was full of success. The Cats spent 16 of the season’s 18 editions of the AP poll ranked in the top 10. Scott Padgett (12.6 points) and Heshimu Evans (11.8) were Kentucky’s leading scorers. UK also won the SEC Tournament this year, with a trio of double-digit wins against Ole Miss, Auburn and Arkansas to win the conference showcase in Atlanta. In that March Madness, UK reached the Elite Eight: UK knocked off New Mexico State, Kansas (in overtime) and Miami (Ohio) before falling to a Michigan State team led by Morris Peterson and Mateen Cleaves in the Midwest Region finals.

2024 NCAA Tournament

Last year, John Calipari’s final Kentucky team also was a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This Kentucky team featured three players - Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham and Antonio Reeves - that were selected in last summer’s NBA draft, with Reeves (20.2 points) and Dillingham (15.2) leading the way in the scoring column. Sheppard, of course, was the highest draft pick of the three, being selected No. 3 overall. But despite plenty of high-scoring success in the regular season, Kentucky stumbled badly in postseason play. The Cats went one-and-done in both the SEC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, with Calipari’s coaching tenure in Lexington coming to an end after UK suffered an upset loss to 14 seed Oakland in the round of 64 in Pittsburgh.

The 14 Seed Upset Phenomenon

The allure of March Madness lies in its potential for upsets, and the 14-3 matchup is a prime example. While 3 seeds win the vast majority of these contests, the instances where a 14 seed prevails are etched in tournament lore.

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, 23 No. 14 seeds have shocked a No. 3.

Notable 14 Seed Upsets

Cleveland State vs. Indiana (1986): Cleveland State became the first 14 seed to win a game, defeating Bob Knight's Indiana Hoosiers 83-79. Led by coach Kevin Mackey, Cleveland State blitzed and harassed the Hoosiers with a relentless full-court press all game long, forcing 15 turnovers. The Vikings proceeded to rattle off another upset win over the sixth-seeded Saint Joseph's, becoming the first 14 seed to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Oakland vs. Kentucky (2024): Oakland's Golden Grizzlies stunned the Kentucky Wildcats 80-76 in the first round. Oakland guard Jack Gohlke drained 10 three-pointers and scored a career-high 32 points to down the mighty Wildcats in the first bracket buster.

Frequency and Trends

In 20 of the 40 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No. 14 seed has triumphed over a No. 3. No. 14 seeds are 12-9 in matches decided by three points or fewer. Only one 14-3 upset has gone to overtime.

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Upsets Beyond the Round of 64

While the Round of 64 is known for its upsets, underdogs can make runs in later rounds as well.

Round of 32

The Round of 32, also called the Second Round, has seen its share of underdog victories. There have been twenty-five Round of 32 matchups between two seeds who had won as the underdogs in the Round of 64: twelve 12-13 matchups, six 11-14 matchups, five 10-15 matchups, and two 9-16 matchups.

Four of the eleven No. 15 seeds (36.36%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Two of the twenty-three No. 14 seeds (8.7%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Six of the thirty-three No. 13 seeds (18.18%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Twenty-two of the fifty-seven No. 12 seeds (38.6%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Twenty-seven of the sixty-two No. 11 seeds (43.55%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Twenty-five of the sixty-two No. 10 seeds (40.32%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Eight of the eighty-three No. 9 seeds (9.64%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Sixteen of the seventy-seven No. 8 seeds (20.78%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Twenty-nine of the ninety-eight No. 7 seeds (29.59%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.

Sweet Sixteen

The Sweet Sixteen has witnessed fewer major upsets, but some double-digit seeds have advanced this far.

One of the four No. 15 seeds (25%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Two of the twenty-two No. 12 seeds (9.09%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Ten of the twenty-seven No. 11 seeds (37.04%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Nine of the twenty-five No. 10 seeds (36%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Five of the eight No. 9 seeds (62.5%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Nine of the sixteen No. 8 seeds (56.25%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Ten of the twenty-nine No. 7 seeds (34.48%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.

Elite Eight

The Elite Eight represents the regional finals, where the competition intensifies.

Six of the ten No. 11 seeds (60%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
One of the nine No. 10 seeds (11.11%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
Two of the five No. 9 seeds (40%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
Six of the nine No. 8 seeds (66.67%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
Three of the ten No. 7 seeds (30%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
Three of the seventeen No. 6 seeds (17.65%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.

Final Four and Beyond

Reaching the Final Four is a rare feat for double-digit seeds. No team seeded No. 9 or lower has ever won a game in the Final Four.

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Four of the six No. 8 seeds (66.67%) who advanced from the Elite Eight also won in the Final Four.
One of the three No. 7 seeds (33.33%) who advanced from the Elite Eight also won in the Final Four.
Two of the three No. 6 seeds (66.67%) who advanced from the Elite Eight also won in the Final Four.

In the national championship game, underdogs face an even steeper challenge.

One of the four No. 8 seeds (25%) who advanced from the Final Four also won the national championship.
The only No. 7 seed who advanced from the Final Four also won the national championship.
One of the two No. 6 seeds (50%) who advanced from the Final Four also won the national championship.

Historical Significance of Upsets

Upsets are an integral part of the NCAA Tournament's appeal, capturing the imagination of fans and creating lasting memories. They demonstrate that seeding is not always destiny and that any team can win on any given day.

The lowest-seeded combination in the national championship game is the 2014 pairing of No. 7 seed UConn and No. 8 seed Kentucky. The highest seed to ever make the championship is a No. 8, which has happened four times. The first came in the first NCAA tournament under the modern format, when No. 8 Villanova beat powerhouse No. 1 Georgetown for the 1985 championship. It also happened in 2011 (Butler), 2014 (Kentucky) and 2022 (North Carolina). That 2014 final also gave us the highest total seed value for a championship game as No. 7 UConn took down No.

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