The Thrilling Saga of the 12 Seed in NCAA Tournament History
The NCAA Tournament, particularly the men's edition, has surged in popularity, fueled significantly by bracket pools where participants attempt to predict the outcome of every game. A major factor in either busting or making these brackets is the first-round matchup between a No. 5 seed and a No. 12 seed. The No. 12 seed has become synonymous with March Madness upsets. This article delves into the captivating history of the 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament, exploring its propensity for upsets and the impact it has on brackets and the tournament as a whole.
The 12 vs. 5 Seed Matchup: A History of Upsets
Since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, the No. 12 seed has consistently been a source of anxiety for No. 5 seeds. The 12-5 upset is one of the most popular March Madness picks each year - and for good reason. There have been 57 upsets by No. 12 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. In 34 of the last 40 tournaments, the 12 seed has won at least one first round game. In 31 of the last 36 NCAA tournaments, No. 12 seeds have won at least one first-round game for a total record of 51-93 (35.4 percent) against No. 5 seeds.
The No. 5 seeds hold a 93-51 edge over the No. 12 seeds (64.6 winning percentage). However, the perception of a significant gap between these seeds has diminished, as noted by Jeff Stoneback, Director of Trading for BetMGM, who stated, "There is not that much of a difference between a 5 seed and a 12 as there were, say, 10 years ago."
Memorable Upsets and Runs
Several No. 12 seeds have etched their names in NCAA Tournament lore with stunning upsets and deep runs.
DePaul (1986): DePaul got the ball rolling in 1986 after beating Virginia by four in the opening round.
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Eastern Michigan (1991): Eastern Michigan’s 20-point win over Mississippi State in 1991 still stands as the largest victory by a No. 12 seed over a No. 5 seed.
Missouri (2002): Missouri was the first program to make it to the Elite Eight as a No. 12 seed. In 2002, the Tigers’ run through the West regional bracket began with a 93-80 win against No. 5 seed Miami (FL). The Tigers went on to upset No. 4 seed Ohio State and No. 8 seed UCLA before they lost in the Elite Eight to No.
Oregon State (2021): Last season, the Oregon State Beavers, the No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, shocked the world (well, maybe everywhere else but Corvallis, Ore.) by advancing to the Elite Eight. The Beavers started their tournament run by toppling No. 5 Tennessee 70-56 as an 8.5-point underdog. The Beavers beat No. 5 seed Tennessee, No. 4 seed Oklahoma State and No. 8 seed Loyola Chicago before losing to No.
2019 Tournament: The 2019 NCAA Tournament belonged to the No. 12 seeds. No. 12 seed Liberty upset Mississippi State 80-76 while No. 12 seeds Oregon and Murray State rolled against No. Murray State's Ja Morant joined exclusive company in 2019, posting the ninth triple-double in NCAA tournament history as the No. 12 Racers took down No. In 2019, three No. 12 seeds advanced to the second round: Murray State (beat Marquette), Oregon (beat Wisconsin) and Liberty (beat Mississippi State). Oregon was the only No. 12 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 in 2019.
Other Notable Upsets: Some other recent, close victories include No. 12 seed Little Rock's 85-83 upset of No. 5 seed Purdue in 2016 and No. 12 seed Yale's 79-74 win against No.
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Recent Trends and Betting Implications
Since 2010, a No. 12 seed has beaten the No. 5 seed 17 times, winning 39% of the 44 games against a No. 5 in that span. In the previous 11 tournaments, more than one No. 12 seed has won five times.
As fans and bettors caught on to the success of No. 12 seeds, so did the sportsbooks. "We used to have a prop up, ‘Would a 12 beat a 5’ and we lost on it every year," said Jeff Stoneback, Director of Trading for BetMGM. "We don’t even offer it anymore."
Specific Years of Note
2013, 2014 and 2019: The best years for riding the No. 12 seeds were 2013, 2014 and 2019 when three No. 12s won.
2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018: The years all four No. 5s advanced were 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.
Examples from the 2025 Tournament
The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket is now live. 12 seeds since 1985, when the field expanded to 64 teams. That said, a 12th-seeded team has beaten a fifth-seeded team in all but five years since 2000. Only in 2023, 2018, 2015, 2007 and 2000 has there NOT been an upset in this NCAA Tournament matchup.
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The most recent NCAA Tournament saw the 5 seeds and the 12s split the four games. Gonzaga was the only favorite to win and cover the spread. Grand Canyon, out of the Western Athletic Conference, made program history by picking up its first ever NCAA Tournament win.
- South: 5 Wisconsin 61, 12 James Madison 72
- East: 5 San Diego State 69, 12 UAB 65
- Midwest: 5 Gonzaga 86, 12 McNeese 65
- West: 5 Saint Mary's 66, 12 Grand Canyon 75
Here are what the odds looked like:
- (5) Wisconsin-5.5 vs. (12) James Madison +5.5
- (5) San Diego State vs. (12) UAB +8.5
- (5) Gonzaga vs. (12) McNeese +6.5
- (5) St. Mary's vs. Grand Canyon +5.5
Two years ago, we saw the 5 seeds sweep the 12s and cover:
- South: 5 SDSU 63, 12 Charleston 57
- East: 5 Duke 74, 12 Oral Roberts 51
- Midwest: 5 Miami 63, 12 Drake 56
- West: 5 Saint Mary's 63, 12 VCU 51
Here are what the odds looked like:
- (5) SDSU -5.5 vs. (12) Charleston +5.5
- (5) Duke -6.5 vs. (12) Oral Roberts +6.5
- (5) Miami -2.5 vs. (12) Drake +2.5
- (5) St. Mary's -3.5 vs. VCU +3.5
The impact of the First Four
Tieme Wesselink, senior basketball trader at FOX Bet, said he likes Mike Woodson's Hoosiers to win a second game in a span of three days on Thursday. Indiana advanced to the Round of 64 by beating Wyoming 66-58 on Tuesday. Woodson and the Hoosiers won the 1979 NIT during his junior season.
"Having played a game in the First Four does not necessarily have to be a negative for the first round as at this stage, fatigue is not much of a concern," Wesselink said. "Rather, being more comfortable with the environment and having less pressure after winning as a First Four can benefit a team."
Factors Contributing to Upsets
Several factors contribute to the No. 12 seed's upset potential:
Talent Disparity: "There is not that much of a difference between a 5 seed and a 12 as there were, say, 10 years ago," Stoneback explained.
Conference Strength: The No. 5 seeds are often power conference teams and those from the top seven or eight conferences. The No. 12 seeds either earned an automatic bid in a smaller conference or are also middle of the pack power conference teams that had close to a .500 record in league play. Either way, the 12s are often quality teams, and history has shown they are dangerous in the first round.
Momentum: The No. 12 seeds are often near the bubble as the NCAA Tournament nears or they need to win their conference tournament to get in.
Pressure: "Rather, being more comfortable with the environment and having less pressure after winning as a First Four can benefit a team."
tags: #12 #seed #ncaa #tournament #history
