UCF Knights vs. BYU Cougars: A Big 12 Showdown Prediction

The UCF Knights (3-4) are set to host the No. 11 BYU Cougars (7-0) in a highly anticipated Big 12 matchup on Saturday, October 26, 2024, at FBC Mortgage Stadium. This game presents a clash of styles and a significant test for both teams as they navigate the competitive landscape of the Big 12 Conference.

Game Overview

Matchup: UCF Knights (3-4) vs. No. 11 BYU Cougars (7-0)
Date: Saturday, October 26, 2024
Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium
Spread: UCF -3
Over/Under: 53.5

BYU's perspective

After a dramatic win over Oklahoma State, BYU is 7-0 and one of only two unbeaten teams in the Big 12.

UCF's perspective

UCF, BYU's next opponent, is coming off a dramatic loss to Iowa State, the other unbeaten team in the Big 12. In their most recent action, the Knights lost versus the Iowa State Cyclones, 38-35.

Betting Insights

The UCF Knights are favored by 3 points, indicating a narrow margin expected between the two teams. The over/under is set at 53.5 points. According to the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Knights 28, Cougars 25.

The Knights have a 58.3% chance to claim victory in this meeting based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Cougars hold a 46.1% implied probability.

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UCF has covered four times in seven games with a spread this season. BYU has won six games against the spread this season, failing to cover once.

BYU's Impressive Season

BYU's journey to a 7-0 record has been nothing short of remarkable. Following BYU's win over Oklahoma State, FPI predicted BYU-UCF and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season. ESPN FPI gives BYU a 45.5% chance to beat UCF on Saturday. UCF is BYU's most difficult game remaining according to FPI. In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.1-1.9. Compared to the preseason, BYU's chances to win increased for every remaining game on the schedule according to FPI.

High Win Projections

7 wins or more - 100%
8 wins or more - 99.5%
9 wins or more - 93.4%
10 wins or more - 71.0%
11 wins or more - 34.7%
12 wins (undefeated) - 7.6%

Big 12 Championship Contenders

Coming off a 7-0 start, BYU has a reasonable chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. FPI gives BYU an 23.7% chance to win the Big 12. Here are the teams with the best chance to win the conference according to FPI.

Iowa State - 35.3%
Kansas State - 25.5%
BYU - 23.7%
Colorado - 8.9%
Cincinnati - 2.7%
Texas Tech - 1.7%
TCU - 0.9%
ASU - 0.7%
WVU - 0.3%
Utah - 0.1%
Kansas - 0.1%

FPI Rankings

BYU dropped one spot in the FPI rankings to 30 after the win over Oklahoma State. Kansas State, who took down West Virginia last night, is the highest-ranked team in the Big 12.

Kansas State - 18th nationally
Iowa State - 19
Colorado - 24
BYU - 30
Cincinnati - 34
Kansas - 35
UCF - 36
Oklahoma State - 43
Arizona State - 49
TCU - 50
Utah - 52
West Virginia - 53
Baylor - 54
Texas Tech - 57
Arizona - 70
Houston - 87

College Football Playoff Implications

Since BYU has a strong strength of record, the Cougars have a decent opportunity to earn an at-large birth if they get to 10 wins or more. BYU has a 41.5% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.