Understanding College Dropout Rates: Statistics, Trends, and Impact

College dropout rates are a significant concern in education, affecting individuals, institutions, and the economy. Examining the statistics, demographics, reasons, and economic impacts of college dropouts provides a comprehensive understanding of this complex issue.

Defining College Dropout

The "status dropout rate" represents the percentage of 16- to 24-year-olds who are not enrolled in school and have not earned a high school credential, either a diploma or an equivalency credential such as a GED certificate. It's important to note that dropout figures exclude students who died, were totally and permanently disabled, or who left school to serve in the armed forces, foreign aid service, or church missions. As of July 2023, 43.1 million Americans were college dropouts. These individuals are sometimes referred to as "Some College, No Degree" (SCNC).

Overall College Dropout Rates

Determining the overall college dropout rate can be a challenge because institutions most commonly track the number of students who are no longer enrolled or who do not receive a degree. However, these numbers often don’t account for students who re-enroll at another institution. As such, dropout rates may be overestimated.

As of 2022, approximately 29.2% of students who entered school in 2017 neither earned their degree nor were enrolled at any other institution six years later. However, there is still a chance that some of these students will re-enroll or have already re-enrolled at another institution. For first-year students, the most recent dropout rates are a little clearer. Between 2016 and 2021, the average dropout rate for first-year, full-time students was 24.4%. Since 2006-2007, the dropout rate for first-time, full-time, first-year undergraduates has decreased by almost five percentage points.

Despite these challenges, dropout rates have steadily decreased over the last decade.

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College Dropout Rates by School Type

For first-year students attending college for the first time, the college dropout rate is highest at public, two-year institutions. Between 2020 and 2021, 2 in 5 (39%) full-time, first-year undergraduates at public two-year schools - such as community colleges - dropped out of school. First-year undergraduates who attended nonprofit four-year institutions had the lowest dropout rate from 2020-2021 at 18.9%.

Overall, students attending for-profit institutions are historically more likely to drop out than students attending public or nonprofit institutions. However, for-profit two-year institutions buck this trend.

College Dropout Rates by Demographics

Different demographic groups, such as those based on race, sex/gender, and age, have varying dropout rates.

College Dropout Rates by Race

Based on 10 years of data spanning 2006-2015, American Indian/Alaska Native first-year students have the highest average dropout rate at about 40%. This is roughly 10 percentage points higher than the most recent average dropout rate for all students. Black and Pacific Islander first-year students also dropped out at higher rates than Hispanic, White, and Asian students. Asian students have consistently had the lowest dropout rate after their first year of all other racial/ethnic groups at an average of 15.6%.

The status dropout rate generally varied by race/ethnicity. In each year from 2012 through 2022, the status dropout rate for Asian 16- to 24-year-olds was lower than the rate for those who were White, and the rates for both groups were lower than the rates for those who were Black, Hispanic, and American Indian/Alaska Native.

The overall status dropout rate for 16- to 24-year-olds decreased from 7.0 percent in 2012 to 5.3 percent in 2022. During this time, the status dropout rate declined for those who were American Indian/Alaska Native (from 12.8 to 9.9 percent), Hispanic (from 12.8 to 7.9 percent), Black (from 9.0 to 5.7 percent), White (from 4.7 to 4.3 percent), and Asian (from 2.6 to 1.9 percent).

Gaps between these groups were generally smaller in 2022 than in 2012, due to the larger percentage point declines among the racial/ethnic group with the higher dropout rate in each set of groups for which there was a gap. For example, between 2012 and 2022, the Asian-Hispanic and White-Hispanic gaps in status dropout rates dropped 4 and 5 percentage points, respectively. This narrowing of the gap was due to the percentage point decrease in the dropout rate among Hispanic 16- to 24-year-olds over the period.

Asian students make up 2.7% of all dropouts, which is the third lowest among ethnic demographics. Native American students make up 1.0% of all dropouts, which is the second lowest among ethnic demographics. Black students make up 14.1% of all dropouts.

College Dropout Rates by Gender

Women are more likely to complete college in four years than men, and the data suggests that they are also less likely to drop out of school. However, data directly comparing the percentage of women who drop out to men is scarce. About 51% of women who enrolled in college in 2014 completed their degree within four years compared to 41% of men. Women have tended to complete their degree within four years at a rate 26% higher than men on average within the past 10 years of available data. On average, six years after enrolling, about 23% of women are no longer enrolled in school compared to about 28% of men.

In 2022, the status dropout rate was higher for male 16- to 24-year-olds than for female 16- to 24-year-olds overall (6.3 vs. 4.3 percent). American Indian/Alaska Native (12.6 vs. Hispanic (9.6 vs. Black (7.0 vs. of Two or more races (5.3 vs. White (4.9 vs. There were no measurable differences in status dropout rates between males and females who were Asian, Pacific Islander, or of Some other race.

Other Factors

In 2022, the status dropout rate was lower for 16- to 24-year-olds living in households and noninstitutionalized group quarters such as college or military housing (5.1 percent) than for those living in institutionalized group quarters such as correctional or health care facilities (32.9 percent). The status dropout rate also differed by disability status.

College Dropout Rates by State

College dropout and SCNC rates vary according to region. Large states like California, Texas, and New York have the highest number of residents with some college experience yet no degree. However, Oregon has the largest percentage of these individuals relative to the state’s total population. College dropouts are more likely to live in California than in any other state. Alaska has the highest dropout-to-undergraduate ratio, with dropouts outnumbering enrolled undergraduates by more than 4-to-1.

21,869 students enrolled in college in Alaska in 2023-2024.
College dropouts who go back and complete their degree in Arizona make up 11.0% of the national completer population.
501,563 students enrolled in college in Arizona in 2023-2024.
New Arkansas dropouts make up 5.0% of the nationwide SCNCs.
College dropouts who go back and complete their degree in Arkansas make up 7.8% of the national completer population.
126,751 students enrolled in college in Arkansas in 2023-2024.
1,383 SCNCs under 25, 2,907 SCNCs 25-34 years old, 1,305 SCNCs 35-44 years old. and 653 SCNCs 45-64 years old re-enroll in college after dropping out.
New California dropouts make up 5.8% of the nationwide SCNCs.
College dropouts who go back and complete their degree in California make up 7.0% of the national completer population.
2,562,357 students enrolled in college in California in 2023-2024.
147,529 students enrolled in college in Connecticut in 2023-2024.
The college dropout or SCNC rate in D.C. 36,706 of D.C.
New D.C. dropouts make up 5.7% of the nationwide SCNCs.
College dropouts who go back and complete their degree in D.C.
46,170 students enrolled in college in D.C.
New Florida dropouts make up 6.2% of the nationwide SCNCs.
New Hawaii dropouts make up 6.3% of the nationwide SCNCs.
New Idaho dropouts make up 8.8% of the nationwide SCNCs.
New Illinois dropouts make up 4.1% of the nationwide SCNCs.
207,049 students enrolled in college in Kentucky in 2023-2024.
New Louisiana dropouts make up 5.8% of the nationwide SCNCs.
441,659 students enrolled in college in Michigan in 2023-2024.
252,050 students enrolled in college in Missouri in 2023-2024.
New Montana dropouts make up 5.2% of the nationwide SCNCs.
44,184 students enrolled in college in Montana in 2023-2024.
108,561 students enrolled in college in Nevada in 2023-2024.
College dropouts who go back and complete their degree in New Hampshire make up 6.7% of the national completer population.
The college dropout or SCNC rate in New Jersey is lower than the national average.
47,150 students enrolled in college in Ohio in 2023-2024.
496,244 students enrolled in college in Oklahoma in 2023-2024.
Recent Oregon dropouts make up 3.8% of the nationwide SCNCs.
College dropouts who go back and complete their degree in Pennsylvania make up 7.3% of the national completer population.
Recent Utah dropouts make up 7.9% of the nationwide SCNCs.
Recent Virginia dropouts make up 5.7% of the nationwide SCNCs.
304,262 students enrolled in college in Wyoming in 2023-2024.

Reasons Why College Students Drop Out

In a 2021 UPCEA survey of 3,236 individuals aged 20-34, the most common reasons students say they ultimately left their institution were money and personal/family issues. Nearly one-third of students (32%) selected personal/family issues as the reason they ultimately left school. Just under one-quarter of students (24%) cited money, while 11% said work/pursue a career path, and 10% said they were disinterested/dissatisfied with school. Younger students were most likely of any respondents to say disinterest/dissatisfaction with school was their main reason for dropping out.

Students who drop out of college may do so because of finances, lack of time, lack of support, or high academic standards. 41% of college dropouts indicate they left due to financial reasons, while 37% indicate they left for family reasons or commitments. Of students who were enrolled but seriously considering leaving college, about half said it is difficult to afford college (53%) and related expenses (50%). Other potential reasons students drop out include academic difficulties or lack of support. 26% of students who dropped out said that academic challenges contributed to leaving, while 22% said that mental health challenges were a factor. Students who dropped out or who were seriously considering leaving college were less likely to have family encouragement to attend college.

Economic Impacts of College Dropouts

College dropouts borrow more money on average to pay for school than their counterparts who complete their degrees. They are also left with less ability to pay back their student loan debt, as dropouts earn less and have higher rates of unemployment than those with degrees. Students who began school in 2003 and were no longer enrolled six years later paid 14-59% more per credit than their counterparts who completed a degree within six years.

As of 2021, those over the age of 25 with some college but no degree had median weekly earnings of $935 and an unemployment rate of 3.5%. Those over the age of 25 with a bachelor’s degree or higher took home at least $1,432 in median weekly earnings and had an unemployment rate of 2.2% or less. College dropouts make an average of 35% less income than bachelor’s degree holders.

Workers with some college but no degree have a 3.8% unemployment rate, which is 15.2% higher than the national average. Workers aged 25 and older with some college but no degree make 7.2% less than associate’s degree holders on average. Workers aged 25 and older with some college but no degree make 9.7% more than high school diploma only. There is a direct correlation between lower income and an increased risk of dropout among all postsecondary students.

The Benefits of Increasing College Completion Rates

Suppose colleges performed as well as high schools. What if rather than accepting these middling completion rates, we made a major push to increase the number of students leaving college with a degree in hand? Similar efforts in the K through 12 system increased high school graduation rates by 15 percentage points since the 1990s and to their highest levels to date. But college completion has been an afterthought.

By making an effort to have the national college graduation rate mirror the high school graduation rate (which is currently 84%), we could see a massive increase in the number of college graduates every single year. Reaching this comparable graduation rate would mean 4 million of those 4.8 million college students would end up with a college degree-a 48% increase in graduates.

Postsecondary degrees have labor market value because employers use them as a proxy for the hard and soft skills that translate into increased performance in the workplace. By making sure the nearly 1.3 million more people would get degrees, we would gain an additional 101,000 people who would participate in the workforce because associate’s degree holders participate in the labor force at a rate 6.2 percentage points higher than those with some college and no degree.

Increasing college attainment is critical as the economy changes and more jobs require college degrees. As states face growing skills gaps, increasing college attainment can help fill high-demand and high-skill jobs. In 2017, college graduates with associate’s degrees and bachelor’s degrees stood to benefit from median annual salaries of $40,322 and $53,882 respectively, compared to a median salary of $36,633 for those with “some college” but no degree.

Higher incomes also result in more tax revenue for federal, state, and local governments. College graduates-through increased earnings-produce an increase in tax revenue across the board.

More people graduating and earning higher salaries also means fewer people living in poverty-and hence, fewer families who need to rely on local, state, and federal safety net programs. College graduates both pay more in taxes and cost less in tax expenditures due to their reduced probability of living in poverty and needing public assistance programs.

Strategies for Improving College Completion

To address this ongoing crisis, our country must give college completion the same laser-like focus we gave our nation’s high schools over the last two decades. Doing so will require Congress to enact policies in its next reauthorization of the Higher Education Act (HEA) that prioritize completion and other important student outcomes like the ability to repay loans and earn a decent living post-graduation.

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