The Enduring Impact of COVID-19 on Student Age Groups

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented changes to students’ educational experiences, and researchers are still working to fully understand the long-term effects. While initial studies focused on academic outcomes and mental health, emerging research highlights a more nuanced picture of how different age groups have been affected. This article examines the multifaceted impact of the pandemic on students, considering factors such as learning skills, educational environments, relationships with teachers, and future academic and financial prospects.

Longitudinal Shifts in Learning Experiences

A three-year longitudinal study by Panorama’s Data Science and Applied Research team, involving over 200,000 students, provides valuable insights into students’ experiences during the pandemic. This study tracked students in grades 3, 6, and 9 at the start, allowing researchers to investigate how longitudinal changes varied by age. By comparing these students to a pre-pandemic group, the study identified significant shifts in learning skills, educational environments, and relationships.

Key Trends

Several noteworthy trends emerged from the study:

Increased Variability: The changes students experienced during the first two years of the pandemic were significantly larger and more variable than normal. The changes across all questions from 2019 to 2020 were, on average, 47% larger than those of the pre-pandemic group.
Inconsistent Patterns: The typical pattern of consistent change from year to year was disrupted. For example, while the pre-pandemic group showed a tendency for survey responses to increase consistently, the pandemic group exhibited the opposite trend.
Self-Efficacy Fluctuations: Students experienced a drop in self-efficacy during the first year of the pandemic, followed by a partial recovery the following year. Younger students showed smaller declines and greater recovery, whereas 9th graders experienced a significant drop with minimal recovery.
Self-Management Challenges: Students across all grades struggled with self-management, particularly in staying focused when working independently.
Strengthened Teacher Relationships: In contrast to the declines in self-efficacy and self-management, students reported stronger, more positive relationships with their teachers during the first year of the pandemic, especially among 6th graders.

Academic Setbacks and Uneven Recovery

Five years after the onset of the pandemic, the education field continues to feel its impact. As of 2024, California students are approximately half a year behind their 2019 counterparts, remaining 31% of a grade equivalent below pre-pandemic levels. While some recovery has occurred, it has not been as rapid as desired.

Exacerbated Inequalities

The effects of COVID-19 have been uneven, exacerbating existing inequalities related to class, race, and ethnicity. Lower-income students now lag further behind upper-income students than they did before the pandemic.

Chronic Absenteeism

Chronic absenteeism, defined as missing 10% or more of the school year, serves as an early warning signal of student disengagement. In California, chronic absenteeism tripled between 2021 and 2022, reaching 30% of missed days. Although it has since decreased to 20%, this rate remains more than double pre-pandemic levels. Disparities in chronic absenteeism rates also exist across racial and ethnic subgroups, with some groups experiencing rates twice as high as before the pandemic. Asian-American students, in particular, have seen their rates nearly triple.

Impact on Mental Health

Chronic absenteeism and virtual learning have negatively impacted students’ mental health. Social isolation during the pandemic has affected their sense of self, belonging, and connection in the classroom. A 2020 survey in Yolo County revealed that 36% of students reported experiencing chronic sadness or hopelessness while at school, a reality that persists nationally.

Future Academic and Financial Concerns

The pandemic has also influenced high school students’ perceptions of their academic and financial futures. Surveys of the Class of 2020 revealed concerns about the ability to afford rent and educational expenses.

College Enrollment Declines

College enrollment was already declining before the pandemic, but COVID-19 accelerated this trend. Community college enrollment experienced the most significant drop (13-14%), followed by CSU (5.4%) and private/out-of-state institutions (3.2%). These declines disproportionately affected racial and socioeconomic groups.

Addressing Learning Gaps and Supporting Students

California educational agencies implemented learning continuity and attendance plans to mitigate the pandemic's impact. These plans focused on ensuring continued education, evaluating assessment methods, and supporting student progress. Key initiatives included:

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Increasing access to devices, Wi-Fi, and hotspots.
Providing additional support in math, language arts, and English language development.
Prioritizing student well-being through mental health lessons and increased counseling services.

Challenges for Teachers

Equity gaps among teachers widened during the pandemic. Teachers faced challenges such as teaching online from home or empty classrooms. Resignation rates among teachers within their first three years of teaching also increased significantly. Research indicates that teachers’ commitment to their community plays a crucial role in their decision to remain in the profession, and social-emotional learning and support for teachers are essential.

Mental Health Services in Schools

Some districts have established systems for delivering mental health services to students through schools, involving partnerships between K-12 schools, local social services, and community-based organizations.

Addressing Chronic Absenteeism Through Relationships

Research suggests that relationships are a key motivator for students to attend class. Chronically absent students have expressed a desire to attend school because of the people and relationships they have there. Schools that have successfully lowered chronic absence rates post-pandemic have focused on building trust and engaging parents.

Technology and Access

A positive outcome of the pandemic is the increased awareness of existing inequities in education, particularly regarding technology and access. Interventions such as providing more computers and increasing Wi-Fi availability have been implemented to support student learning. There have also been positive changes to student meal plans, and schools are increasingly prioritizing students’ needs.

Long-Term Economic Consequences

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a massive collapse in human capital, potentially jeopardizing the well-being of generations and the growth of economies. A World Bank report analyzing global data on young people under 25 at the pandemic's onset found that students could lose up to 10% of their future earnings due to COVID-19-induced education shocks. The cognitive deficit in toddlers could translate into a 25% decline in earnings when these children become adults.

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Impact on Early Childhood

Preschool-age children have experienced significant learning losses in early language, literacy, and math. Preschool enrollment has also declined in many countries. Additionally, children faced greater food insecurity during the pandemic.

Impact on School-Age Children

School-age children, on average, lost approximately 32 days of learning for every 30 days of school closures. In low- and middle-income countries, nearly 1 billion children missed at least a full year of in-person schooling. As a result, learning poverty has increased, with an estimated 70% of 10-year-olds unable to understand a basic written text.

Impact on Youth Employment

COVID-19 has severely impacted youth employment. Forty million people who would have had a job in the absence of the pandemic did not have one at the end of 2021. Youth earnings contracted by 15% in 2020 and 12% in 2021. New entrants with lower education will have 13% less earnings during their first decade in the labor market.

Policy Recommendations

The World Bank report highlights evidence-based policy options to recover from current losses and prevent future ones. These include:

For young children: Targeted campaigns for vaccinations and nutritional supplementation, increased access to pre-primary education, and expanded coverage of cash transfers for vulnerable families.
For school-age children: Keeping schools open and increasing instructional time, assessing learning and matching instruction to students’ learning levels, and streamlining the curriculum to focus on foundational learning.
For youth: Support for adapted training, job intermediation, entrepreneurship programs, and new workforce-oriented initiatives.

Building Resilient Systems

In the longer term, countries need to build agile, resilient, and adaptive health, education, and social protection systems to better prepare for and respond to future shocks.

Impact on Young Children's Development

The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically altered the lives of young children, with child care programs closing, stay-at-home orders being issued, and parents struggling to balance work and childcare responsibilities. Infants and toddlers have spent much of their earliest years at home, with limited opportunities for socialization and gaining critical relationship skills.

Social and Emotional Delays

Limited social interaction and play-based learning during the pandemic have led to social and emotional delays in young children. Many have experienced high levels of stress, which, without supportive relationships, can increase the risk of emotional, behavioral, and cognitive problems. Research has shown delays in cognitive and motor skills, as well as increases in behavioral issues. Babies born during the pandemic have scored lower in gross motor, fine motor, and social-emotional development.

Decline in Pre-K Enrollment

There has been a steep decline in state pre-K enrollment and early intervention services since the start of the pandemic. This has potentially profound long-term effects, as children who enter kindergarten behind are more likely to remain behind throughout their academic careers. During the 2020-2021 school year, enrollment in state pre-K programs dropped for the first time in two decades, with some states experiencing declines of over 30%. Fewer young children have been receiving early intervention services, and referral rates have decreased.

Understanding the "COVID-19 Pandemic Experience"

Healthcare professionals need to consider a child’s “COVID-19 pandemic experience” as a factor affecting their neurodevelopment, academic performance, physical, and mental health.

Increased Screen Time

The pandemic has led to a major increase in screen time for children of all ages, from toddlers to adolescents. With virtual learning and reduced in-person activities, children have spent more time using digital platforms for assignments and have had fewer opportunities for reading and writing on paper. Handwriting skills have suffered as a result.

Mental and Physical Health Implications

Excessive screen time may have long-term physical and mental health implications for adolescents. Studies have linked increased screen time to obesity, poor sleep, lower physical activity, and suicidal behaviors. Screen time, including video games and watching videos, has also been associated with the development of obsessive-compulsive disorder.

Impact on Babies

Babies born during the pandemic have had altered early life experiences. Some were immediately quarantined away from their mothers due to maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection, which likely affected breastfeeding success and maternal-infant bonding. Many babies had reduced exposure to family members and full-face smiles due to masking. Maternal depression and family stress may have also altered the home environment. Studies have shown that birth during the pandemic and exposure to a mother with SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy may increase the risk for lower developmental milestone achievement in infancy.

Positive Experiences

Some families reported positive experiences during the pandemic, such as a feeling of more togetherness. With daycares and preschools closed, many families had more time together.

The Need for Ongoing Research

The potential indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic point to the need for ongoing pediatric research. The generation of children with their age-specific experience of the COVID-19 pandemic needs to be followed and assessed for effects on their neurodevelopment, educational attainment, social development, physical and mental health, and future employment.

Learning Losses and Contributing Factors

School closures and the shift to hybrid/virtual learning have adversely affected student achievement through a decline in skill accumulation and disruption of peer effects. Losses occurred early in the pandemic, and recovery has been limited. The impact has been particularly pronounced for younger students and those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Factors Explaining Learning Losses

Several factors have contributed to learning losses:

Decline in Enrollment: K-12 public school enrollment declined significantly. While some students shifted to home-school or private-school enrollment, a substantial portion of the loss remains unexplained.
Instructional Time: The amount of effective instructional time decreased due to school closures and the transition to remote learning. Increased instruction time has a positive impact on student test scores, with younger students benefiting more.
Schooling Mode: The schooling mode (in-person, hybrid, or virtual) has affected student achievement, with less in-person schooling leading to larger declines in pass rates.

Long-Term Outcomes

School disruptions and learning losses have a wide range of economic and social effects. Lower levels of learning can reduce future earnings potential and labor-market opportunities, potentially leading to lower economic productivity for the nation. Fewer years of schooling can also result in lower high school graduation rates and higher unemployment as adults.

The Impact of School Closures

The 2022 study "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of COVID-19 School Closures" found that a six-month school closure for children between 4 and 14 years old would increase the share without a high school degree and reduce the share of children with a college degree, with younger children experiencing the largest negative effects. Average lifetime earnings would also decline.

Educational Inequality

The pandemic has widened the gap in academic achievement between students from high-income and low-income families. Factors contributing to this widening inequality include the direct impact of virtual schooling, the decline in positive peer spillovers, and the fact that parents in low-income families face tighter constraints in supporting their children's learning.

School Closures and the Achievement Gap

School closures were more common in schools with lower third-grade math scores and higher shares of students who are racial and ethnic minorities, who experience homelessness, who have limited English proficiency, and who are eligible for free or reduced-price school lunches. Remote learning resources were also more limited for disadvantaged students.

Adding Instructional Time

Adding instructional time can increase student achievement, but the benefits depend on how time is increased and which students receive the additional instruction. A uniform rise in instruction time may benefit high achievers more than low achievers.

The Role of Social Interactions and Parental Resources

Schools act as a "social equalizer" by providing children from disadvantaged families the opportunity to socialize with children from families with higher educational attainment. School closures affect educational inequality through learning technology, peer environment, and parent demands.

Technology Access and Distance Learning

The coronavirus pandemic brought major disruptions to American society, including the closure of many schools. The traditional classroom environment transitioned to online education programs. Concerns have been raised about whether inequities in access to these online programs could exacerbate existing gaps in student performance.

Household Internet Access

Lower-income students typically have lower levels of home access to the internet. Data from the 2020 Household Pulse Survey (HPS) reveals changes in children’s access to technology and distance learning programs at home during the pandemic.

Distance Learning Format

The percentage of adults reporting that classes for their children had moved to a distance learning format using online resources varied across racial/ethnic groups. In September 2020, the percentage was highest for Asian adults (81%), followed by Hispanic and Black adults (71% and 68%, respectively), and lowest for White adults (64%). The percentage also varied across households with different income levels. In September 2020, distance learning was more common among those with a 2019 household income of $150,000 or more (72%) than among those in the four household income levels under $100,000 (ranging from 63% to 68%).

Computer and Internet Availability

In September 2020, 91% of adults reported that computers were always or usually available to children for educational purposes, compared with 88% in April 2020. Both computer and internet availability varied across racial/ethnic groups and income levels. For example, in September 2020, computer availability was highest for Asian adults (97%), followed by White adults (93%), and lower for Black and Hispanic adults (90% and 88%, respectively).

School-Provided Resources

In September 2020, 59% of adults reported that computers were provided by the children’s school or school district, which was higher than the 39% reported in April 2020. Some 4% of adults reported in September 2020 that internet access was paid for by the children’s school or school district, which was also higher than the 2% reported in April 2020. The percentage of adults reporting that schools provided computers was higher for Hispanic adults (68%) and Black adults (65%) than for White and Asian adults (55% each).

Income-Based Disparities

The percentage of adults reporting that their children’s school or school district provided computers and paid for internet access was generally higher for those with lower 2019 household incomes.

Educational Attainment: High School and College

Research has examined educational attainment, especially overall K-12 enrollment and college enrollment. Remote and hybrid schooling was likely a key factor, but COVID triggered other changes that may also have affected attainment. High school graduation and college entry are both key stepping stones to further human capital investment.

High School Graduation and College Entry

The transitions from high school to college dropped significantly-by 16% in two-year colleges and 6% in four-year colleges in 2021 relative to the pre-pandemic period. In 2022, two-year entry dropped even further, by 21%, whereas four-year entry rebounded to just 2% below 2019 levels. High school graduation actually increased slightly in 2020, dipped slightly in 2021, and then rebounded in 2022 to an all-time high.

Variation by Subgroup and Sector

The improvement in high school graduation was broad-based. For every subgroup, high school graduation rates were at least as high in the spring of 2022 as in the pre-pandemic spring of 2019. College entry, however, saw sharp drops, especially in two-year colleges serving high percentages of Black and Hispanic students.

Explanatory Factors

Lower numbers of COVID cases and higher levels of in-person instruction led to increased college entry and possibly increased higher graduation. Relaxation of high school graduation standards is the one factor that seems to explain the differing trends because, anecdotally, high school educators were directed to ease the burden on students during the difficult pandemic period.

Differing Trends

Smaller enrollment declines occurred in high school than in earlier grades, with larger declines in kindergarten than in other elementary grades. Small increases in high school graduation occurred, but large declines were seen in the transition from high school to college. Larger declines were seen in two-year than in four-year college enrollment.

Theory

Human capital theory highlights factors that changed during the pandemic and are theoretically connected to education attainment decisions, including instructional mode, relaxation of academic standards, economic opportunity, and actual levels of COVID infection.

High School Data

High school graduation rates were studied by school district at both traditional public and charter schools. One advantage of using high school graduation data is that states are required to use a single measure, the adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR).

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