Navigating the NCAA Tournament Bubble: Predictions and Analysis
The 2026 men's NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching. Many fans are asking: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly three weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases.
Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
We'll track how each team on the "bubble" of the bracket is trending. We'll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections -- conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we'll use Joe Lunardi's Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources -- including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate -- to judge a team's underlying potential.
The NCAA uses the NET Rankings - an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) - to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket. As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order.
Understanding the Categories
We'll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Read also: March Madness Predictions
- Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection (if necessary). They would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 27 current teams
- Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large odds or better), but not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 12 current teams
- Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest "on the bubble" teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip, though their consensus at-large odds may be as low as 10%. 16 current teams
- Teams beyond these categories would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos.
Teams in Contention
Here's a breakdown of teams in contention, updated as of February 26, 2026:
Should Be In
- Tennessee Volunteers (4)
- Kentucky Wildcats: Their résumé features five Quadrant 1 wins, enough to rank around the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, and is still comfortably sixth best in the SEC, which projects to send as many as 11 teams in the latest Bracketology. Even with 10 losses, it helps that seven came to Quadrant 1A foes. A bigger concern is that they still have one of the nation's toughest remaining schedules, with all three games against Quadrant 1 foes (including a Quadrant 1A in Florida). Next game: vs. Vanderbilt (Saturday)
- Georgia Bulldogs: It has been a roller-coaster season for the Dawgs: After winning 16 of their first 19 games, they lost five of their next six and fell from a 97% to 66% consensus at-large chance in the span of three weeks -- but those chances are back up around 90% despite the loss to the Commodores. Georgia sits mid-30s in the overall résumé rankings, with four wins against Quadrant 1 foes, and ranks seventh in résumé average within what should be at least a 10-bid SEC. Toward the end of a challenging stretch of games, the Dawgs have the conference's easiest remaining schedule according to the BPI, so they should pick up a couple of additional wins. Next game: vs. South Carolina (Saturday)
- Missouri Tigers: They still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline mid-40s nationally), a scary spot to be in with the conference projected for 10-11 tournament entries. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, though, and in many ways are the anti-Auburn in terms of what the committee might value more: They have a much better record (19-9 vs. 15-13) against a much easier schedule (63rd hardest vs. fourth). After Tuesday night, the at-large forecast models now favor Mizzou (78%) over Auburn (58%), which is why Dennis Gates' team now sits here -- with a much easier case to argue for itself from a W-L perspective. Next game: at Mississippi State (Saturday)
- Texas A&M Aggies: With Wednesday's one-sided loss at Arkansas, though, their consensus at-large chances stay in the mid-70% range. They rank ninth in the résumé average out of what's looking like a 10- to 11-bid SEC, so they are on the right side of the bubble, but Bucky McMillan's squad probably needs to bolster their case against Texas, Kentucky and/or LSU to close the regular season. Next game: vs. Texas (Saturday)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (2): Now the Hawkeyes' at-large chances sit around 98%, a strong position to be in. Their résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally -- in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings -- so their tournament hopes are in good shape. Their remaining schedule won't be easy; after Saturday's trip to Penn State, they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska. But they shouldn't need either of those upsets to round out their résumé. Next game: at Penn State (Saturday)
- UCLA Bruins: On Saturday, they beat visiting No. 10 Illinois in overtime on Donovan Dent's coast-to-coast layup, then took down crosstown bubble rival USC by 19 behind Dent's 30 points on Tuesday. They now have three Quadrant 1 wins on the season (two Q1-A) and their résumé ranks borderline top 40 nationally, converging with a predictive rating that has been better than their résumé indicated for most of the year. Even if the Big Ten gets only nine bids, the Bruins would appear to be in line for one of the last of those -- they rank eighth on the conference's résumé list -- and their consensus at-large odds are now 91% in the forecast models. Next game: at Minnesota (Saturday)
- SMU Mustangs (3): They have been neck and neck with Miami (and now Clemson) recently, fighting to be sixth (as opposed to eighth) in what could be an eight-bid ACC. Now SMU's consensus at-large chances are 89% -- narrowly ahead of the Hurricanes and Tigers at 87% each -- though all three teams are well clear of Cal (35%) and Virginia Tech (26%), who stand as its closest bubble rivals within the conference. The Mustangs do have the most challenging schedule of the three, with trips to Stanford and FSU sandwiched around a head-to-head against Miami. Next game: at Stanford (Saturday)
- Miami Hurricanes: Their at-large chances are now above those of Clemson and not far from SMU's, though all three teams are bunched closely together in the mid-30s of the national résumé quality ranking -- the trio makes up Nos. 6-8 in the ACC in that regard, with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be non-tournament teams in an eight-bid conference. The BPI has Miami projected to win nearly 24 games now, so the Canes are in good shape. Next game: vs. Boston College (Saturday)
- Clemson Tigers: The Tigers had been an ACC "lock" since Bubble Watch launched on Feb. 3, with a 97% or higher at-large probability in the forecast every day for the past three weeks -- until Saturday. They fell below that threshold with their fourth loss in a row, this time to Quadrant 3 Florida State. They still rank in the low-to-mid 30s nationally on résumé (no worse than eighth in the ACC) and their consensus chances are still around 90% despite the slump. But they have been downgraded as a result, trending lower in the conference's pecking order according to the odds. Next game: at Virginia (Tuesday)
- BYU Cougars (1)
- UCF Knights: The Knights had been losing their grip on that spot with three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia earlier this month, but it's fair to say they've regained their position and then some (now up to 97% at-large odds) with wins over bubble rival TCU, Utah and then a big road upset over BYU on Tuesday night. The victories push their full-season projection back up to near 22 wins and help them close in on the top 30 in the résumé average -- a good place to be, since no other non-lock from the Big 12 is even better than No. 50. With a couple of manageable home games coming up against Baylor and Oklahoma State before a visit to WVU for the season finale, the Knights are back in the driver's seat. Next game: vs. Baylor (Saturday)
- Utah State Aggies (2) (Mountain West)
- Saint Mary's Gaels (WCC): They haven't missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, and it's tough to imagine that streak coming to an end now. Saint Mary's sits 27th in the résumé rankings with a consensus 95% at-large probability -- very nearly a "lock" -- and after Wednesday, it likely no longer has to worry about how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. It still has just one Quadrant 1 win -- it could add a second vs. Gonzaga when the two meet again on Saturday at Saint Mary's. But the Gaels have to feel like they are in solid shape either way. Next game: vs. Gonzaga (Saturday)
- Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10): After they came back to beat bubble rival VCU by 13 points Friday, they turned around and suffered their ugliest loss of the year: by 15 points at Dayton. The positives are that Saint Louis still ranks top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings and even better in the predictive ratings, so it's hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. But there will be lessons to learn from Tuesday's loss. Next game: vs. Duquesne (Saturday)
Work To Do
- Texas Longhorns (2): The Longhorns' five-game winning streak is disappearing in the rearview mirror, with the consensus forecast now setting their at-large chances in the at 63% -- up from 45% earlier in the month but down from 81% a week ago. They still have more Quadrant 1 wins than Texas A&M, but they're also neck and neck with Missouri for 10th among SEC teams in the résumé rankings (mid-40s nationally). Even after losing to Georgia and Florida, two of their final three regular-season contests are against Quad 1 opponents, so their tournament fate still hangs in the balance. Next game: at Texas A&M (Saturday)
- Auburn Tigers: They still have a fascinating case: Although all but one of their recent losses came against Quadrant 1 opponents, they have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation's fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI and remain top 40 in the national résumé ranking average. But those mounting losses do matter, and teams most similar to Auburn have tended to miss out on an at-large bid more often than not. Whatever happens, they will be an interesting litmus test for what the committee values. Next game: vs. Wisconsin Badgers
- Indiana Hoosiers (3): Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams -- they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what's looking like a nine-bid conference -- and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo. Next game: vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
- Ohio State Buckeyes: Their at-large chances now sit in the high-50% range, casting doubt on a tournament profile that seemed much stronger not long ago. Ohio State is a better team than its current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. But the Buckeyes have been unable to escape the bubble for very long, ranking in the mid-40s in the résumé rankings -- right on the cutline both nationally and for a projected nine- or 10-bid Big Ten. After the Iowa loss, they are now 1-10 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 0-9 vs. Q1-A specifically. Remaining games against Purdue and Indiana loom large. Next game: vs. Purdue (Sunday)
- USC Trojans: With the 11th-best résumé ranking in what's trending to be just a nine-bid conference, and a ranking outside the top 50 of the predictive ratings, USC needs strong showings against Nebraska, Washington and UCLA again to make a case as one of the Big Ten's last entries. Next game: vs. NC State Wolfpack
- California Golden Bears (2): They still sit outside the nation's top-50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have five Quadrant 1 wins and face the ACC's easiest remaining schedule. That doesn't leave many more signature-win chances, aside from a Quadrant 1 visit to Wake Forest in the finale. With a consensus at-large probability of 35%, the Bears have to bolster their case further. Next game: vs. Pittsburgh (Saturday)
- Virginia Tech Hokies: They do have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50.
- TCU Horned Frogs (2): Although they sit with a consensus at-large chance in the 40% range, they have four Quadrant 1 wins and have one more chance to add another coming up against Texas Tech on March 3. They have a clear case to be the conference's eighth tournament team, though if seven ends up being the Big 12's magic number, they're in trouble. Next game: at Kansas State (Saturday)
- Cincinnati Bearcats (3): -- for their fourth consecutive win was fun while it lasted. Tuesday's loss to Texas Tech threatens to send them back into long shot territory. They are only borderline top 60 in the national résumé average -- the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 -- and they are projected to finish the season with 14.4 losses, per the BPI. At this point, their case really relies on two signature wins: over Iowa State at home and at Kansas. The consensus model sets Cincinnati's at-large chances at 12% now. Next game: vs. St.
- Seton Hall Pirates (1): Wednesday's 12-point home loss to DePaul put a dent in the Pirates' chances, only mitigated slightly by Saturday's victory over Georgetown. Their at-large chances sit at 13% in the forecast composite, while they rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, so Seton Hall's last chances to impress the committee would be to upset UConn (Feb. 28 on the road) or St.
- Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (6) (MAC): Could history repeat? Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don't quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season -- and Miami (Ohio) made the field as an at-large team during an NCAA-ran mock selection exercise last week. It is true that the RedHawks are a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) and had just the 321st-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and they held off Eastern Michigan on Tuesday for their 28th. They are now only three away from an undef…
Locks
- None
Mock Bracketology: Projecting the Field
After the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee revealed its Top 16 overall seeds at this point in the season, many teams across college basketball hit the floor looking to raise their stock.
Here's a glimpse at a projected bracket:
Buffalo
- 1 UConn vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
- 8 NC State vs. 9 UCF
- 5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
- 4 Michigan State vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Oklahoma City
- 6 BYU vs. 11 Texas
- 3 Nebraska vs. 14 Austin Peay (ASUN)
- 7 Villanova vs. 10 Indiana
- 2 Florida vs.
San Diego
- 6 North Carolina vs. 11 Ohio State/Santa Clara
- 3 Texas Tech vs. 14 UC Irvine (Big West)
- 7 Kentucky vs. 10 Clemson
- 2 Purdue vs.
St. Louis
- 7 St. Louis (A10) vs. 10 UCLA
- 2 Houston vs.
Greenville
- 5 Tennessee vs. 12 South Florida (American)
- 4 Kansas vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Portland
- 5 St. John’s vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
- 4 Alabama vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Tampa
- 5 Arkansas vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
- 4 Virginia vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
Philadelphia
- 1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Appalachian State (SBC)
- 8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 Miami
Buffalo
- 6 Louisville vs. 11 New Mexico/Missouri
- 3 Illinois vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
St. Louis
- 3 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
- 7 Wisconsin vs. 10 Texas A&M
Oklahoma City
- 1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 UMBC/Howard
- 8 St. Mary’s vs. 9 Georgia
San Diego
- 1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman/SEMO
- 8 SMU vs. 9 Auburn
First Four Games
- 16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC) vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
- 16 UMBC (AEC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
- 11 Ohio State vs. 11 Santa Clara
- 11 New Mexico vs. Greenville
Top Seeds
- Houston dropped to the 2-seed line when the Selection Committee revealed its Top 16 teams, behind Iowa State and UConn by thin margins.
- UConn sits atop the list of 2-seed teams after the weekend win over Villanova, paired with a nod from the Selection Committee during the Top 16 reveal. They look to make a 1-seed leap in bracketology with a midweek game against St.
- Purdue sits on the 2-seed line of bracketology in the same spot the Selection Committee placed them, coming off a Friday win over Indiana.
- Michigan falls off the top spot in bracketology this week, losing a head-to-head matchup against Duke.
- Iowa State jumped onto the 1-seed line, as the Selection Committee gave them the nod over UConn and Houston.
- Arizona got the expected 1-seed nod from the Selection Committee, then backed it up with a road win over Houston which helps elevate them in the conversation with Michigan and Duke.
- Florida jumps onto the projected 2-seed line following a loss by Illinois and the nod from Selection Committee members that they entered the day as the best 3-seed on the board.
Read also: National Championship Preview
Read also: Seed Projections for NCAA Tournament
tags: #ncaa #predictions
