NCAA Wrestling Championships: Projecting the Podium

The NCAA Wrestling Championships are a high point of the college wrestling season. Taking place in Philadelphia, the event promises to showcase the nation's best collegiate wrestlers. This article delves into predictions for each weight class, analyzing potential matchups and highlighting top contenders.

Awards and Dominance

Before diving into the predictions, it's worth noting the NCAA Men’s Wrestling Awards, which recognize outstanding achievements throughout the season. These awards, inaugurated in 2012, consider factors like falls, technical falls, and dominance. The Most Dominant Wrestler standings are calculated by dividing the total number of team points awarded through match results by the total number of matches wrestled.

Currently, Penn State’s Mitchell Mesenbrink leads Division I with a 5.32 average. In Division II, heavyweight Isaiah Vance holds the top spot with a 4.85 average, while Trent Mahoney of Albright leads Division III with an average of 5.72. These awards highlight consistent performance and the ability to secure bonus points, factors that often translate to success at the NCAA Championships.

125 Pounds: Lilledahl's Lightning

The 125-pound weight class has been known for its volatility. Last year, Arizona State’s Richard Figueroa took the crown.

True freshman Luke Lilledahl of Penn State has emerged as a strong contender for the national championship title. Lilledahl had an impressive run in the Big Ten tournament, securing wins over Matt Ramos of Purdue and Caleb Smith of Nebraska. Lilledahl’s confidence has grown, making him a likely candidate for a deep tournament run.

Lilledahl received a favorable draw as the No. 1 seed. He shares his side of the bracket with three former opponents he faced throughout the season, including No. 20 Brendan McCrone of Ohio State and No. 12 Dean Peterson of Rutgers, who account for Lilledahl's two losses. A potential third match against No. 9 Caleb Smith of Nebraska is also a possibility. Key matchups to watch include No. 5 Richard Figueroa of Arizona State in the quarterfinals and No. 4 Vincent Robinson of NC State in the semifinals.

Many believe Lilledahl will face Matt Ramos in the championship bout. However, some predict Ramos will seek revenge for his earlier loss.

133 Pounds: Ayala's Consistency

This weight class is considered tough. Junior Drake Ayala of Iowa stands out for his consistency. Ayala's biggest challenger will be Illinois' Lucas Byrd, whom he is 1-1 against this season.

Penn State's Braeden Davis, seeded No. 8, had a mediocre run in the Big Ten tournament. Davis is likely to meet Braxton Brown of Maryland, followed by a potential quarterfinal match against Lucas Byrd of Illinois. Davis has struggled as an underdog, making the Byrd match a significant challenge.

After an unconventional route to a third-place finish at the Big Ten Championships, Braeden Davis drew an unlucky No. 8 seed. The Nittany Lion will most likely face Maryland’s Braxton Brown in the second round, an opponent he beat in a close 9-7 match in the conference championships. After that, the Nittany Lion will run into a buzzsaw known as Lucas Byrd in the quarterfinals. Heading into the consolation bracket, Davis will have an uphill battle. No. 11 seeded Evan Frost out of Iowa State could be a potential first consolation match followed by a consolation quarterfinal of No. 4 seeded Zeth Romney of Cal Poly. Although Davis’ track record as an underdog is not great, I think the Nittany Lion beats Romney to move on to the consolation semifinals against No. 3 seeded Nasir Bailey of Little Rock. He beat Bailey 1-0 at the Journey Classic at the start of the season, but I feel this will end Davis’ run for third place. He’ll lose to No.

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

141 Pounds: Alirez's Redemption

Graduate student Andrew Alirez of Northern Colorado, the 2023 champion, enters as the No. 8 seed. Alirez's path to the finals is favorable, with Jesse Mendez and Beau Bartlett on the other side of the bracket.

Despite taking third at the Big Ten Championships, Beau Bartlett has made a lot of progress this season, and it has shown in some of his most recent matches. Bartlett is heavily favored against his first three opponents of the tournament and will likely face Tagen Jamison of Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals. Jamison and Bartlett have never had to face each other, which could potentially make this a highly anticipated match. Jamison had an impressive season where he went 20-4 and was runner-up at the Big 12 Championships. Jamison will be a tough matchup for Bartlett, especially if he comes out aggressive. Bartlett typically has a more defensive style of wrestling, but if he wants to defeat Jamison, he needs to get the first takedown. I think Bartlett will defeat the Cowboy and advance to the semifinals, where he will meet Jesse Mendez for the final time.This season, Bartlett and Mendez have met three times, including the All-Star Classic. Bartlett currently leads Mendez in matches this season 2-1. Since Bartlett is familiar with Mendez’s wrestling style and can defend him well, I think Bartlett will take one last victory against Mendez to push him through to the finals. There are a few potential opponents that Bartlett could face in the finals, but I believe that opponent will be Brock Hardy of Nebraska. Although Hardy is coming off a Big Ten title, Bartlett has been working toward this moment all season. Bartlett has shown his progression as a wrestler in his two most recent matches against Mendez. With the loss to No. 6 Vance Vombaur of Minnesota, Bartlett’s third-place finish at the conference tournament slotted him in as the No. 2 seed for NCAAs. However, Bartlett seemed to flip a switch after the loss, taking down No. Heading into this year’s national tournament, Bartlett could face off against both Vombaur and Mendez before the finals, looking to avenge his lone loss of the season against the Boilermaker and win the back-and-forth series against the Buckeye in what would be their final contest on the resilite. After doing both of those things, Bartlett would reach the final against, in my opinion, an uncertain opponent. While the No. 1 seed Brock Hardy of Nebraska is a strong wrestler, I could also see No. 5 Cael Happel of North Carolina beating the Cornhusker for the second time this season to reach the final. After a disappointing end to his last Big Ten Championships, Beau Bartlett hopes to move past his upset loss against Vance Vombaur of Minnesota. The Nittany Lion has been one to leave fans at the edge of their seats in big matches, making it a risky game to bet on the Nittany Lion to win. Unfortunately for Bartlett, the third-place finish at Big Tens slotted him as the No. 2 seed. Not only will the Nittany Lion probably face Oklahoma State’s Tagen Jamison in the quarterfinals but also Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez in the semifinals if he were to win. The Nittany Lion should beat Jamison in a close matchup and face his rival in the semifinals in a rematch of last year’s Big Ten and NCAA final. Bartlett has had Mendez’s number since the Nittany Lion’s loss at the All-Star Classic but I have a gut feeling the Buckeye will best him this time, sending Bartlett into the consolation bracket in heartbreaking fashion.

149 Pounds: Henson's Reign

Junior Caleb Henson of Virginia Tech is the reigning national champion. Henson is 18-0 on the season and shows no signs of slowing down.

Shayne Van Ness comes into the tournament as the No. 3 seed after taking third in the Big Ten Championships. Van Ness seems to have a pretty clear path for his first two matches, where he will face Gabe Willochell of Wyoming and then either Chance Lamer of Cal Poly or Andrew Clark of Rutgers. Van Ness has already defeated these three wrestlers in a fairly dominant fashion. This puts Van Ness in the quarterfinals, where he will likely take on Lachlan McNeil, an All-American from North Carolina. With this being an unfamiliar opponent for Van Ness, it will certainly be his first true test of the tournament. I predict Van Ness will meet Ridge Lovett of Nebraska in the semifinals. Van Ness has already fallen to Lovett this season in a 10-2 major decision. While I believe it will be a closer match than the previous one, I think Van Ness will struggle against Lovett and take his first defeat of the tournament. This will place Van Ness in the match for third place where he will likely take on either Kyle Parco of Iowa, or Paniro Johnson of Iowa State. Van Ness and Parco have already faced off this season, and twice in previous seasons. After taking yet another early loss at Big Tens, Van Ness was given the No. 3 seed in the 149-pound bracket, awarding him a rather favorable draw. Van Ness will be first tested in the quarterfinal when he is likely to take on No. 6 Lachlan McNeil of North Carolina, who Van Ness has never wrestled against. Predicting Van Ness to win the bout, he would likely take on No. 2 Ridge Lovett of Nebraska in the semifinals. If Van Ness would lose in the semifinals, he would drop straight into the third-place bout, likely against No. 5 Kyle Parco of Iowa or No. 4 Paniro Johnson of Iowa State. The 149-pound weight class has its fair share of contenders this season. Undefeated Caleb Henson out of Virginia Tech and Ridge Lovett out of Nebraska seem to be the two favorites after Lovett’s Big Ten title win. Van Ness seems to have a clear shot to the semifinals barring any upsets from happening. Although No. 6 Lachlan McNeil of North Carolina is poised to be a tough opponent in the quarterfinals, I predict Van Ness majors the Tar Heel. Next, the Nittany Lion will likely face Lovett for the first time since his major decision loss in the regular season. Although the Cornhusker has looked good throughout the Big Ten Championships, I was surprised to see his lack of production in his finals matchup against Kannon Webster of Illinois who is 14-6 on the season. For this reason, I think Van Ness gets his revenge in a close match with the Big Ten champion, moving him forward to the finals against Henson.

157 Pounds: Kasak's Grit

Sophomore Tyler Kasak of Penn State is a top contender. Kasak's only loss this season came by medical forfeit. He is the No. 1 seed and is poised to make a title run.

Despite going up two weight classes this season, Tyler Kasak has been a beast on the mat. Kasak dominated at the Big Ten Championships, defeating Brandon Cannon of Ohio State by an astounding 12-2 major decision. As the No. 1 seed, Kasak should easily advance to the quarterfinals, where I predict he will match up against Joey Blaze of Purdue. Blaze is a dangerous competitor and has yet to wrestle Kasak. If Kasak advances to the semifinals, we will likely see a Kasak and Cannon rematch. While Cannon is no new face for the Nittany Lion, considering the two only wrestled two weeks ago, Kasak has already proved that Cannon is no match for him. In the finals, Kasak will either take on Meyer Shapiro of Cornell or Antrell Taylor of Nebraska. After a dominant run in the Big Ten Championships, Kasak received the No. 1 seed and is poised to make a title run in his second year at nationals. As you may know, Kasak took an early loss at nationals last year, wrestling back an unprecedented seven straight matches to take third place. Kasak shares his side of the bracket with only one familiar opponent, No. 5 Brandon Cannon of Ohio State. Kasak defeated Cannon with a 12-2 major decision in the Big Ten championship finals earlier this month. With no true threat before the finals for Kasak, look for him to take on either No. 3 Antrell Taylor of Nebraska or No. 2 Meyer Shapiro of Cornell in the championship. Tyler Kasak has been nothing short of dominant this season including an almost perfect regular season and a Big Ten Championship. Last year’s nationals didn’t go according to plan for the Nittany Lion as he was upset in the first round and, in unheard-of fashion, won seven straight consolation matches to take home third. Kasak’s No. 1 seed works well for his chances at a deep tournament run. Arguably the toughest matchup before the finals is Big Ten runner-up No. 5 Brandon Cannon of Ohio State. Kasak defeated the Buckeye by major decision in the conference championship so I would expect a similar result to occur in the semifinals of this tournament. In the finals, Kasak will look to defeat Cornell’s Meyer Shapiro who went 11-1 this season.

165 Pounds: Mesenbrink's Dominance

Sophomore Mitchell Mesenbrink of Penn State is a force to be reckoned with. Mesenbrink has won all but one match by bonus points. He is the No. 1 seed and is expected to dominate the bracket.

Mitchell Mesenbrink is another Nittany Lion who is a force to be reckoned with. This season, Mesenbrink has won all but one match by bonus points. He loves to score and isn’t afraid to come out strong. As the No. 1 seed, I predict Mesenbrink will coast through to the semifinals, where he will potentially meet former teammate Terrell Barraclough of Utah Valley. The last time Mesenbrink and Barraclough went head-to-head was in the 2023 Black Knight Invitational, where Mesenbrink won in a tight match. In the championship, there are a few possibilities for who Mesenbrink could face, including Michael Caliendo of Iowa and Beau Mantanona of Michigan. To save a few words, Mesenbrink will completely dominate the 165-pound bracket. Sitting as one of the most dominant pound-for-pound wrestlers in the country, the No. 1 seed will rack up a handful of bonus point victories on his way to a title. One potential match to look for would be Mesenbrink going up against No. 4 Terrell Barraclough in the semifinals. In no way, shape, or form should Mesenbrink come close to losing a match in this year’s national championship. The Nittany Lion has been unbelievably dominant this season as he went 22-0 with 16 tech falls.

174 Pounds: O'Toole's Funk

Senior Keegan O'Toole of Missouri is bringing his "funk" up to 174 pounds. The field at 174 is tough, with Dean Hamiti and Levi Haines in the bracket.

184 Pounds: Keckeisen vs. Starocci

Senior Parker Keckeisen of Northern Iowa and four-time NCAA champion Carter Starocci of Penn State is perhaps the biggest storyline of the tournament. In Philadelphia, Keckeisen gets that rematch vs. Starocci and wins a second NCAA title, cementing himself as one of the best Panther wrestlers ever.

197 Pounds: Buchanan's Versatility

Graduate student Stephen Buchanan of Iowa has shown that he is comfortable in any type of match. His versatility makes him a tough out for anyone, and this is why he will get his first NCAA title in his final season.

285 Pounds: Steveson's Dominance

Graduate student Gable Steveson of Minnesota. Really hard to bet against an Olympic gold medalist, particularly one with the skill level and athleticism Steveson has. While Greg Kerkvliet of Penn State and Wyatt Hendrickson of Oklahoma State are worthy opponents, Steveson will roll in Philadelphia.

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