College Football Week 1: Expert Picks and Comprehensive Analysis

The first full week of the college football season is upon us, offering a slate of exciting matchups and opportunities for expert analysis. This article delves into some of the most anticipated games, providing insights, predictions, and potential betting angles.

Featured Games and Expert Opinions

USC vs. Missouri State

Chris "The Bear" Fallica predicts a dominant performance by USC, anticipating a 49-7 type win. He believes USC's defense, which improved dramatically last year under Anthony Lynn, will be even better this season and that the Trojans like their backs a good bit and this one feels like a 49-7 type win.

PICK: USC (-35) to win by more than 35 points

Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame

This top-10 showdown is generating significant buzz. There is a lot of talk about whether Georgia transfer Carson Beck to elevate Miami in his program debut or believe first-time ND starter CJ Carr can handle a new-look defense? Fallica expresses surprise at the point spread, favoring Notre Dame, and highlights Miami's revamped defense and the potential dividends from stacking recruiting classes under Mario Cristobal. He considers Carson Beck to be underrated and believes Miami could secure a significant win.

PICK: Miami (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright

Other Underdogs to Watch (Moneyline Bets)

Fallica suggests keeping an eye on these underdogs for potential moneyline upsets:

Miami +125
LSU +170
Syracuse +425
Colorado +165
UTEP +185

Bear Bytes: Key Stats and Trends

Ohio State: This would be the first time since 2019 AP No. 1 is an underdog in a regular-season game, ending a run of 63 straight regular-season games in which they were favored. Dating back to 1985, AP No. 1 has been a 'dog in a regular-season game 10 times, winning eight outright.
Penn State: Only one time has Penn State been a larger favorite under James Franklin than the 45-point favorite it is vs. Nevada.
Florida State: From 1978 to 2023, FSU was a 13-point home dog three times in 286 home games. They didn’t cover any of the six and lost four outright.
Miami: Notre Dame has lost each of its last six road games against top-10 teams dating back to a 2012 win at Oklahoma.
Tennessee: Josh Heupel has been favored in 17 games against non-SEC opponents while at Tennessee, with the Vols going 16-1 outright and 14-3 ATS in those 17 games.
Clemson: LSU has lost all three season-openers under Brian Kelly.

Chris Fallica's Betting Philosophy and Season Outlook

Fallica emphasizes discipline and restraint in his Week 1 picks, acknowledging the excitement but advocating for a cautious approach. He highlights two key promises he made to himself:

Embrace the Week 0-3 Stability System: This system proved highly profitable last season (23-14 ATS), and Fallica commits to following it rigorously.
Limit the Number of Plays: He recognizes that offering too many opinions can be detrimental to overall success.

He considers himself "old school," primarily focusing on point spreads and totals due to their straightforward nature and the availability of trend/system research in those areas.

Line Movement Analysis and Potential Traps

Fallica identifies several line movements that warrant attention:

Boise State vs. South Florida: The line has dropped dramatically, with Boise State opening as 10-point road favorites but now at -5.5. Fallica suggests this indicates potential concerns for the Broncos, especially with the departure of RB Ashton Jeanty. He notes USF's stability under coach Alex Golesh and the return of 16 starters, including QB Byrum Brown.
Wyoming vs. Akron: This game has "trap" written all over it, according to Fallica. He questions Wyoming's ability to be respected road favorites, given their struggles last season. He also points to Akron's potential for optimism under coach Joe Moorhead, with QB Ben Finley returning for his senior year.

Key Matchups and Team Overviews

Auburn vs. Baylor: There is considerable hype surrounding the Auburn football program this season, particularly with what head coach Hugh Freeze has been able to add through the transfer portal, highlighted by QB Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. At the same time, head coach Dave Aranda has a lot back from what was already proven to be a strong 8-5 team out of the Big 12 last season. The Baylor Bears finished the year strong, and with their entire offense returning, including QB Sawyer Robertson, I think the Bears are ready to take the next step. They open up at home vs. a very beatable opponent in Auburn, who have some very real quarterback concerns.
Colorado: The assumption for this game is that Colorado is going to be massively down for 2025. However, if you go back to my recruiting ranking article from back in June, you would see that I wrote this about the Buffaloes: “The impact of hiring head coach Deion Sanders has been huge on the recruiting trail as he has continued to build this program with three straight top 25-ranked classes. With his son QB Shadeur off to the NFL, Sanders has brought in highly-rated freshman Juju Lewis to be the quarterback of the future in Boulder. This is clearly a new and improved era of Buffaloes’ football.” Lewis won’t be getting the starting nod; the job instead falls to veteran Kaidon Salter, who starred at Liberty. Let’s not forget, this team went 9-4 last season, including 5-1 at home. And while they lose Sanders and Heisman winner Travis Hunter, there is now a solid foundation of strong recruiting to lean on.
Michigan State: Michigan State enters 2025 on a three-year bowl game drought, having compiled a 14-22 record during that span. Last year was a rebuilding season under then new head coach Jonathan Smith. His second team at MSU should be much more competitive, with 15 starters back, including QB Aidan Chiles. Smith will be looking for some more explosive offense in 2025, as his team scored just 19.8 PPG last season. Points shouldn’t be that hard to come by this week as the Spartans host an in-state foe in Western Michigan. The Broncos allowed 31.3 PPG last year and return just three starters on that side of the ball.
Michigan: Last year at this time, Michigan was the defending national champion, yet perhaps the most unstable program in the entire country, as head coach Sherrone Moore was left to pick up the pieces from the fallout of Jim Harbaugh’s departure for the NFL. The program was a winner, but mired in controversy and scandal. Culminating a rocky 8-5 season with wins over Ohio State and Alabama was certainly a welcome way to go out. Now, it seems, the Wolverines have a ton going for them in 2025: 14 starters back, and most of their coaching staff back in place. The same cannot be said for New Mexico, who was left in shock by head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s unexpected departure to conference rival Utah State. The program falls to Jason Eck, former head coach at Idaho, and he has just seven starters back from last year’s 5-win team. This line is big for a reason.
Maryland: The Stability Score mismatches for Week 1 have a Big Ten flair to them so far, and Maryland becomes the third qualifier in four games. The Terps weren’t stable nor good in 2025 as they won just four games and missed out on a bowl game for the first time since 2020. The program stayed the course, however, and retained head coach Mike Locksley, who will have 10 starters back for 2025. The first test comes against a transitioning Florida Atlantic team that turns to head coach Zach Kittley. The former OC at Texas Tech gets his first chance at a FBS head job this season. He has just six starters back, but brings in QB Caden Veltkamp from Western Kentucky. This situation looks very unstable now, but Veltkamp gives reason for legitimate optimism down the road.
Virginia: Virginia needed just one upset win in its final three games this past November to end a three-year bowl game drought, but instead, the Cavaliers were beaten by at least 20 all three times. Head coach Tony Elliott’s team looks to take that elusive step forward in 2025, with 14 starters back and a new QB in Chandler Morris, a former TCU and North Texas star. The early part of the season schedule looks favorable for UVA to gain some momentum, starting with this game versus Coastal Carolina. Third-year head coach Tim Beck brings on new coordinators on both sides of the ball, as well as a new quarterback, expected to be Maryland transfer MJ Morris.
Marshall: I have written on several occasions this offseason regarding the plight of the Marshall program since their Sun Belt title game win this past December. The program couldn’t come to terms with former head coach Charles Huff, and the program essentially unraveled when he made the choice to move on. He took most of his key players with him. Tony Gibson, former DC at NC State, is left to pick up the pieces. The Herd were 10-3 last season, but with just four starters back from that team, the current team is a shell of its 2024 self. The opening game couldn’t get much tougher either, as a trip between the hedges awaits. Georgia is among, if not the favorite, in the SEC for 2025. The Bulldogs are also a rightful massive favorite for this particular game. Think about it…when’s the last time you saw a 10-win team from the prior season open with a +39.5 line? The answer is never.
Kentucky vs. Toledo: There is a common argument that arises every bowl season, debating the merits of motivation in bowl games between Group of 5 and Power 4 foes. On the side of the G5 teams is the chance to prove themselves against the big boys, who may not be thrilled with the matchup. Then, of course, there is the argument of sheer talent. Bowl season can wreak havoc on the debate when you consider opt-outs, the portal, etc. But what about a regular-season matchup such as this one? Pitting the MAC’s Toledo versus the SEC’s Kentucky in the heart of SEC country. Both teams are expected to be at full strength, so you’d have to assume the Wildcats are the better team. And motivation? In fact, if you’re head coach Mark Stoops and UK, you’d have to think that this game is all the more important with the way the treacherous schedule lays out the rest of the way. As a program, they typically take non-SEC action seriously: Kentucky is 20-6 (76.9) ATS in non-conference games since 2018. The dumping of this line seems like a gift to me.
UTEP vs. Utah State: UTEP was just 3-9 last season in head coach Scotty Walden’s first year atop the program, but there is some reason for optimism this fall, as Walden was able to land former five-star QB Malachi Nelson, who began his career at USC. He also has returning starter Skyler Locklear back at the position, so it can safely be assumed that the Miners will be better at the most key of spots. Meanwhile, Utah State starts anew under head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who led a mini revival at New Mexico this past season. The Aggies have just two offensive starters back from their 4-8 team of 2024, which scored 31.9 PPG. Defense is their issue, though; they yielded 37.8 PPG in 2024. This looks like a nice underdog spot where a potentially much-improved UTEP team can thrive.
Fresno State vs. Georgia Southern: For a second straight week, we have the opportunity to fade rebuilding Fresno State, who is transitioning in the first season under head coach Matt Entz. In the offseason, I questioned the team’s adding of QB EJ Werner, who had only moderate success at Temple, a team that has been far below FSU’s level in recent years. In fact, this program was used to having prolific passers under Jeff Tedford. There wasn’t much prolific about the 7-point, 216-yard effort at Kansas last week. Georgia Southern, on the other hand, has been an offensive juggernaut under head coach Clay Helton, and he has 13 starters back from his 8-5 team from last season.
Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss: In my opinion, this is an important season for Mississippi State football and second-year head coach Jeff Lebby. This program hit rock bottom last year in SEC terms, failing to even win a single game in conference while finishing 2-10. Lebby has 16 starters back for 2025, though, including veteran QB Blake Shapen, who helped the Bulldogs to 25.8 PPG last year, an improvement of 4.0 PPG. With an extremely rigorous SEC slate starting on 9/27, it is essential that this program get off to a good start, and who better to kick it off against than an in-state foe that is in what looks to be a total rebuilding year. The Golden Eagles have some reason for optimism with head coach Charles Huff, along with several of his key players from 2024 Marshall coming in, but USM is about as unstable a situation early as it gets.
Rice vs. Louisiana: Rice has gone the way of the triple option in 2025, turning to head coach Scott Abell, who gets his first FBS chance after guiding Davidson for the last seven years. In a time when even longtime option teams like Navy are leaving the system, Rice has turned back the clock. Besides having new and unrecognizable systems in place on both sides of the ball, the Owls bring back only seven starters from last year’s 4-8 team. Louisiana, meanwhile, has the exact same number of starters back, but is coming off a 10-4 season and is expected to retool, not rebuild. The new QB is expected to be Walker Howard, a former highly rated Ole Miss transfer.
LSU vs. Clemson: I’ve mentioned a few times already about difficult spots in which to play a season-opening game. To me, LSU has the most difficult task of all, having to travel to Clemson to take on a Tigers’ team that has the look and hunger of one set to retake its place among the elite programs in the country this year. It has been a bit of a drop off over the last handful of years for head coach Dabo Swinney and the Tigers, but this past offseason, he got out of his comfort zone somewhat and tapped into the transfer portal to shore up some weak spots in the roster. As such, he has what appears to be as complete and veteran of a lineup on both sides of the ball as anyone. LSU also looks pretty strong, and I don’t have many knocks on what head coach Brian Kelly brings to the table. I do, however, have some key home stats regarding early-season games and AP top 25 matchups: First, home-field advantage means a lot in early-season games between unfamiliar Power 4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 28-16 SU and 25-15-4 ATS (62.5%) over the last decade-plus. Second, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 196-94 SU and 169-113-8 ATS (59.9%). Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 115-22 SU and 85-48-4 ATS (63.9%).

Additional Week 1 Matchups

Texas at Ohio State: Expert prediction: Texas is the narrow favorite against Ohio State on the road with Manning at the helm of this offense, coming out ahead in 53 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game. Texas by 1 over Ohio State
Syracuse vs. Tennessee: Expert prediction: The computers are predictably taking Tennessee in this neutral site game, as it tends to with SEC teams playing non-conference games, but likes the Vols’ offense with Joey Aguilar the helm against the Orange secondary that was 82nd nationally last season. Tennessee by 15 over Syracuse
Old Dominion at Indiana: Expert prediction: Indiana debuts at No. 20 in the preseason AP top 25 rankings, losing some of its production from that historic 11-win playoff team, but retains enough especially on defense to still make a little run this fall. The Hoosiers come out ahead in 89 percent of the simulations in the opener. Indiana by 15 over Old Dominion
Nevada at Penn State: Expert prediction: Penn State checks out in 99 percent of the index’s projections against a Wolf Pack team coming off a three-win campaign and bringing on a new quarterback. The Nittany Lions have the firepower to win the Big Ten this year. Penn State by 39 over Nevada
Marshall at Georgia: Expert prediction: No surprises here, but reigning SEC champion Georgia wins this game in 97 percent of the simulations against a team that won the Sun Belt last season, but replaces most of that squad. Georgia by 29 over Marshall
Alabama at Florida State: Expert prediction: The machines like the Crimson Tide in 91 percent of the simulations, not saying much for the Seminoles to defend their home turf, but the visitors from the SEC have a decisive edge at the skill positions and on defense. Alabama by 17 over Florida State
South Dakota at Iowa State: Expert prediction: Iowa State is already at 1-0 after a signature win over Kansas State in the Week 0 game and return home in a matchup it’s set to win with 91 percent odds. Iowa State by 18 over South Dakota
Montana State at Oregon: Expert prediction: The reigning Big Ten champs open at Autzen with 95 percent odds to start off undefeated. Oregon by 25 over Montana State
Illinois State at Oklahoma: Expert prediction: Another gimme for an SEC squad out of conference, as the Sooners have 98 percent odds to win the opener at home before hosting Big Ten hopeful Michigan in Norman next weekend. Oklahoma by 34 over Illinois State
Long Island at Florida: Expert prediction: DJ Lagway and a solid Gators offense get a chance to tune up in this one with more than a 99 percent likelihood to win. Florida by 52 over Long Island
North Dakota at Kansas State: Expert prediction: Kansas State is likely falling in the rankings despite this game after last week’s loss to Iowa State, but is a 98 percent favorite in its home debut. Kansas State by 31 over North Dakota
UTSA at Texas A&M: Expert prediction: A nice easy win for the Aggies, who have a 92 percent chance to take care of this non-conference foe at Kyle Field. Texas A&M by 19 over UTSA
New Mexico at Michigan: Expert prediction: Michigan has a 97 percent likelihood to start 1-0 at home. Michigan by 30 over New Mexico
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Tech: Expert prediction: Our first look at what the Red Raiders invested in this offseason, when they went on a notable spending spree and came away with the No. 1 transfer class in the country. The computer gives Tech a 100 percent shot in the opener. Texas Tech by 53 over Pine Bluff
Georgia State at Ole Miss: Expert prediction: Lane Kiffin gets his new-look roster on the field, giving fans their first glimpse at Austin Simmons taking over for Jaxson Dart at quarterback, as the Rebels have a 94 percent chance to win this opener with ease. Ole Miss by 23 over Georgia State
East Texas A&M at SMU: Expert prediction: The reigning ACC runner-up gets a 99 percent chance in Week 1. SMU by 40 over East Texas A&M
Northern Arizona at Arizona State: Expert prediction: Last year’s surprise Big 12 champs lose Cam Skattebo in the backfield but retain a proven QB-WR duo in Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson, with a 98 percent chance to start their title defense 1-0. Arizona State by 31 over Northern Arizona
Virginia Tech at South Carolina: Expert prediction: Can the Gamecocks can a step forward, or stumble two steps back after losing key defensive personnel? They have a 71 percent chance in the opener against a Hokies team that brings back Kyron Drones under center. South Carolina by 6 over Virginia Tech

Week 0 and Thursday Results

Thursday Results:

South Florida 34, Boise State 7
Rutgers 34, Ohio 31
Bowling Green 26, Lafayette 7
North Carolina State 24, East Carolina 17
UCF 17, Jacksonville State 10
Wyoming 10, Akron 0
Delaware 35, Delaware State 17
Louisiana-Monroe 29, Saint Francis (PA) 0
Duke 45, Elon 17
Oklahoma State 27, UT Martin 7
Missouri 61, Central Arkansas 2
Minnesota 23, Buffalo 10
Houston 27, Stephen F. Austin 0
UAB 52, Alabama State 42
Nebraska 20, Cincinnati 17
Wisconsin 17, Miami (Ohio) 0
San Diego State 42, Stony Brook 0

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

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