NCAA Basketball's Biggest Upsets: When Underdogs Triumph

An upset in the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament is a victory by an underdog team over a higher-seeded opponent in this single-elimination tournament. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, several games have become legendary upsets. These include victories by teams seeded No. 11 or lower in the Round of 64, No. 7 or lower in the Round of 32 or the Sweet Sixteen, or No. 6 or lower in the Elite Eight, Final Four, or national championship.

Defining an Upset

In the context of the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, an upset is defined as a victory by an underdog team. This generally constitutes a team defeating an opponent with a substantially higher seed.

Historic Upsets in NCAA Tournament History

Throughout the history of March Madness, some upsets have earned an unforgettable place. Most recently, there have been two instances of No. 16 seeds defeating a No. 1 team. During the 1980s, two underdogs sprung a shocker in the title matchup. After an unprecedented upset in the 1990s, a double-digit seed out of a low-major conference rolled all the way to the Final Four.

The Improbable 16-Seed Victory

Top seeds have historically dominated No. 16 seeds, holding a 158-2 all-time record. However, two games stand out in stark contrast to this trend.

UMBC over Virginia (2018): UMBC became the first No. 16 seed ever to upset a No. 1 seed in 2018, when the Retrievers defeated Virginia and became an overnight sensation. At the break, the teams were deadlocked at 21 apiece. UMBC went on a quick run to pull ahead, but surely Virginia would come back. The advantage grew to double digits, but UVA still had time. But slowly, steadily, the lead continued rising and the clock kept on ticking. Soon enough, it was a blowout. UMBC would go on to lose to Kansas State by a score of 50-43 in the next round.

Read also: Anthony Robles: Overcoming Obstacles
FDU over Purdue (2023): In 2023, FDU became just the second No. 16 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed. More than 97% of brackets picked the Boilermakers to advance. The Knights held their own, nursing a narrow lead for much of the game. The plan was not to stop the towering Edey as much as it was to nullify the rest of the Purdue offense. Matched up with 7'4" Zach Edey-the National Player of the Year-and top-seeded Purdue, the undersized FDU roster scrapped to a 63-58 triumph. Purdue couldn't buy a three and committed 16 turnovers to FDU's eight. The wildest part is Fairleigh Dickinson made the Big Dance on a technicality. Merrimack won the NEC tourney but wasn't eligible for the postseason because of the four-year Division 1 transition rule.

Close Calls for 16-Seeds

A 16 seed has come within one point of a top seed twice. They were both in the 1989 NCAA tournament. The second time was when Oklahoma outlasted ETSU, 72-71. That must have been a wake-up call for the Sooners, because they beat No. The next year, Murray State took Michigan State to overtime, but ultimately lost 75-71.

The Frequency of 15-Seed Upsets

No. 15 seeds have upset 2 seeds 11 times, including a run of three seasons in a row from 2021 through 2023. These upsets include:

Richmond def. South Carolina (1991)
Santa Clara def. Arizona (1993)
Coppin State def. South Carolina (1997)
Hampton def. Iowa State (2001)
Lehigh def. Duke (2012)
Norfolk State def. Missouri (2012)
Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown (2013)
Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State (2016)
Oral Roberts def. Ohio State (2021)
Saint Peter's def. Kentucky (2022)
Princeton def. Arizona (2023)

14-Seed Over 3-Seed Upsets

There have been 23 14-seed over 3-seed upsets, too.

Notable Double-Digit Seed Runs

1989: The four 11-seeds swept the First Round against their 6-seed opponents. As of 2023 this is the only time that 11-seeds have achieved this feat, and no lower seed ever has.
Multiple Years: Three out of four 12-seeds have advanced five times, in 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2019.

Richmond's Upset History

Richmond is the only team to win first-round games ranked as a No. 15, No. 14, No. 13.

Read also: Crafting Your NCAA Profile

Tournament Anomalies and Statistical Oddities

Years with Multiple Upsets: 1986, 1995, 2015: Two No. 14 seeds over No. 3 seeds. 1991, 1997, 2013, 2016, 2021: One No. 15 seed over a No. 2 seed and one No. 14 seed over a No. 3 seed. 2012: Two No. 15 seeds over No. 2 seeds. 2023: One No. 16 seed over a No. 1 seed and one No. 15 seed over a No. 2 seed.
2014 Tournament: 2014 produced the highest total seed differential in an NCAA Tournament, with 128 across all the rounds of play. That is, the sum of seed differences among the 19 games won by lower-seeded teams was 128.
2013 Sweet Sixteen: 2013 was the only tournament to have three teams seeded No. 12 or lower in the Sweet Sixteen: No. 12 Oregon, No. 13 La Salle, and No.
2018 South Region: The 2018 South Region was the first region since seeding began in 1979 in which no top-4 seed advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (No. 5 Kentucky, No. 7 Nevada, No. 9 Kansas State, No.
2021 Tournament: 2021 featured 14 upsets, the most upsets in a single tournament.

Round-by-Round Upset Analysis

Round of 64 (First Round)

There have been two games in which a No. 16 seed has defeated a No. 1 seed.
There have been 11 games in which a No. 15 seed has defeated a No. 2 seed.
There have been 23 games in which a No. 14 seed has defeated a No. 3 seed.
There have been 33 games in which a No. 13 seed has defeated a No. 4 seed.
There have been 57 games in which a No. 12 seed has defeated a No. 5 seed.
There have been 62 games in which a No. 11 seed has defeated a No. 6 seed.

Round of 32 (Second Round)

A No. 16 seed has never won a game in the Round of 32. The closest margin of defeat happened in 2018, when UMBC lost to No.
Four of the eleven No. 15 seeds (36.36%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Two of the twenty-three No. 14 seeds (8.7%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Six of the thirty-three No. 13 seeds (18.18%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Twenty-two of the fifty-seven No. 12 seeds (38.6%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Twenty-seven of the sixty-two No. 11 seeds (43.55%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Twenty-five of the sixty-two No. 10 seeds (40.32%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Sixteen of the seventy-seven No. 8 seeds (20.78%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.
Twenty-nine of the ninety-eight No. 7 seeds (29.59%) who advanced from the Round of 64 also won in the Round of 32.

Sweet Sixteen

One of the four No. 15 seeds (25%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
A No. 14 seed has never won a game in the Sweet Sixteen. The closest margin of defeat happened in 1986, when Cleveland State lost to No.
A No. 13 seed has never won a game in the Sweet Sixteen. The closest margin of defeat happened in 1998, when Valparaiso lost to No.
Two of the twenty-two No. 12 seeds (9.09%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Ten of the twenty-seven No. 11 seeds (37.04%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Nine of the twenty-five No. 10 seeds (36%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Five of the eight No. 9 seeds (62.5%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Nine of the sixteen No. 8 seeds (56.25%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.
Ten of the twenty-nine No. 7 seeds (34.48%) who advanced from the Round of 32 also won in the Sweet Sixteen.

Elite Eight

A No. 15 seed has never won a game in the Elite Eight. The closest margin of defeat happened in 2022, when Saint Peter's lost to No.
A No. 12 seed has never won a game in the Elite Eight. The closest margins of defeat happened in 2002, when Missouri lost to No. 2 seed Oklahoma, and 2021, when Oregon State lost to No.
Six of the ten No. 11 seeds (60%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
One of the nine No. 10 seeds (11.11%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
Two of the five No. 9 seeds (40%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
Six of the nine No. 8 seeds (66.67%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
Three of the ten No. 7 seeds (30%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.
Three of the seventeen No. 6 seeds (17.65%) who advanced from the Sweet Sixteen also won in the Elite Eight.

Final Four

No team seeded No. 9 or lower has never won a game in the Final Four. The closest margin of defeat happened in 2023, when No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic lost to No.
Four of the six No. 8 seeds (66.67%) who advanced from the Elite Eight also won in the Final Four.
One of the three No. 7 seeds (33.33%) who advanced from the Elite Eight also won in the Final Four.
Two of the three No. 6 seeds (66.67%) who advanced from the Elite Eight also won in the Final Four.

National Championship

One of the four No. 8 seeds (25%) who advanced from the Final Four also won the national championship.
The only No. 7 seed who advanced from the Final Four also won the national championship.
One of the two No. 6 seeds (50%) who advanced from the Final Four also won the national championship.

Lowest-Seeded Championship Matchups

The lowest-seeded combination in the national championship game is the 2014 pairing of No. 7 seed UConn and No. 8 seed Kentucky. Other notable pairings include:

The pairing of No. 8 seed Butler and No.
The pairing of No. 8 seed North Carolina and No.
The pairing of No. 10 seed Providence and No.

Round of 32 Underdog Matchups

There have been twenty-five Round of 32 matchups between two seeds who had won as the underdogs in the Round of 64: twelve 12-13 matchups, six 11-14 matchups, five 10-15 matchups, and two 9-16 matchups.

Teams Defying the Odds

Villanova in 1985, a No.
Penn's 1979 Final Four appearance as a No.
Butler is the only team to make consecutive Final Fours (let alone Championship Games) while not being a No. 1 or No. 2 seed either time (No. 5 in 2010, No.

Examples of Memorable Upsets

The ultimate prize in the NCAA tournament is winning a national championship, but a single victory can make for a legendary result, too.

Saint Peter's over Kentucky (2022)

Kentucky has been the subject of a couple big upsets recently, also falling to Oakland in the opening round in 2024. Two years earlier, though, John Calipari's team arrived at the Big Dance with the third-best championship odds as a No. 2 seed. Star center Oscar Tshiebwe would soon be crowned the National Player of the Year, too.

Nobody bothered to tell Saint Peter's, apparently. Daryl Banks III poured in 27 points, and mustachioed man Doug Edert dropped 20 with a clutch shot to force overtime. Kentucky went cold in the extra session, and Saint Peter's earned a shocking 85-79 win. Best of all for the Peacocks, they ended up advancing to the Elite Eight-the deepest run for a No. 15 seed in March Madness history.

Coppin State over South Carolina (1997)

Given that Coppin State had just secured its seventh MEAC regular-season title in an eight-year stretch, the Eagles didn't come out of nowhere. But these upsets didn't happen. Until this moment in 1997, the MEAC never saw a conference team win a game in the Big Dance. That changed when 15th-seeded Coppin State derailed SEC regular-season champion and No. 2 seed South Carolina 78-65. Coppin State became only the third 15-seed to win a first-round matchup, joining Richmond (1991) and Santa Clara (1993).

Norfolk State over Missouri (2012)

To date, there are 11 upsets featuring a 15-seed in the first round. Only during the 2012 tournament have a pair of 15s provided a stunner. Lehigh, led by future NBA standout CJ McCollum, took out Duke and certainly landed consideration for this ranking. Duke was a 12.5-point favorite, though, so it was a more modest line in comparison. Missouri held a 21-point betting edge on Norfolk State. Whoops. Future NBA forward Kyle O'Quinn turned into a menace that day, racking up 26 points and 14 rebounds. Chris McEachin and Pendarvis Williams both added 20 points for Norfolk State, which overcame zero bench points to clip Mizzou 86-84.

Richmond over Syracuse (1991)

All hail Richmond, the upset kings. Even before the 1991 tournament, the program had logged upset victories as a double-digit seed in 1984 and 1988. You might be familiar with the Spiders' more recent work in 2011 or 2022, as well. The brightest moment in Richmond history, nevertheless, is this 1991 triumph over Jim Boeheim's second-seeded Syracuse. For the first time in NCAA history (during the 64-team era), a No. 15 seed advanced to the second round. Curtis Blair and Terry Connolly keyed a balanced effort with at least 14 points and five assists apiece in Richmond's 73-69 win.

George Mason over Connecticut (2006)

Top-seeded Connecticut had an opportunity to end this Cinderella story, but it wasn't yet midnight for George Mason. Head coach Jim Larranaga, who later led Miami to its first-ever Final Four appearance, oversaw this iconic run as a No. 11 seed. The team knocked off Michigan State and North Carolina-both Final Four qualifiers one year earlier-to reach the Sweet 16, where the Patriots took out Wichita State. Connecticut held a nine-point lead in the second half, but GMU wouldn't go away. The game ultimately went to overtime, and UConn guard Denham Brown's last-second shot clanged off the rim to seal the 86-84 result. George Mason became the first double-digit seed from outside a high-major conference to make the Final Four.

Middle Tennessee over Michigan State (2016)

Despite being a No. 2 seed, Michigan State entered the 2016 tournament as nearly the co-favorite to win a national title. The dream died immediately. Fresh off a Big Ten tournament crown, the Spartans fell to Middle Tennessee 90-81. They simply could not slow the Blue Raiders, whose starters all scored double-digit points while shooting a combined 11-of-19 from the perimeter. The loss snapped a 12-time streak of MSU, when holding a top-five seed in Tom Izzo's tenure, advancing at least to the Sweet 16.

NC State over Houston (1983)

The balance to remember is that North Carolina State wasn't exactly an unsuspecting team. After winning the ACC tournament, the sixth-seeded Wolfpack beat national top-10 teams UNLV and Virginia as part of their Cinderella run. Still, the final obstacle was a star-studded Houston roster with future NBA standouts Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. NC State spoiled the party for the country's No. 1 team. Thanks to Lorenzo Charles' iconic last-second dunk, the Wolfpack won 54-52. The late Jim Valvano, NC State's head coach, is remembered for running around the court, spinning and looking for a celebration to join.

Villanova over Georgetown (1985)

The season in which the tournament first expanded to 64 teams, March Madness provided what remains a record championship. Villanova, an 8-seed, won it all. On the path to a national title, the Wildcats were a prime example of the "survive and advance" mantra. They clipped Dayton, top-seeded Michigan and Maryland by four points or less to reach the Elite Eight, then upended highly ranked North Carolina and Memphis to earn a shot at a crown. Georgetown, which won both regular-season meetings and boasted future No. 1 overall draft pick Patrick Ewing, awaited in the championship. Villanova took full advantage of there not being a shot clock, playing a slow-paced game and finishing a remarkable 22-of-28 from the field with a 22-of-27 mark at the free-throw line, too. It took every bit of Nova's brilliant efficiency to clip Georgetown 66-64.

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