Declining College Major Salaries: Trends, Implications, and Future Outlook
As students and their families grapple with the ever-increasing costs of higher education, understanding the evolving landscape of college major salaries is crucial. Recent data reveals significant shifts in the job market, with some academic disciplines experiencing declining salary projections while others continue to thrive. This article delves into these trends, exploring the reasons behind them, their implications for students and colleges, and the potential long-term consequences for society.
The Shifting Landscape of College Major Salaries
The National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) Winter 2025 Salary Survey indicates a mixed bag of salary projections for the Class of 2025 compared to the previous year, when nearly all groups of majors saw increases. This year, the projected changes range from a gain of 2.8% for agriculture and natural resources to a decrease of 3.6% for social science graduates. This realignment of value in the labor market underscores the widening divide between disciplines that lead to immediate economic returns and those that may offer more indirect or long-term benefits. While most technical fields are experiencing modest salary gains, liberal arts-related majors are not keeping pace.
Declining Fields
Several fields are experiencing shrinking salary projections for new graduates. The NACE report projects a 3.6 percent drop in starting salaries for social science graduates in 2025, making it one of the few major academic disciplines expected to see a year-over-year decline. Communications, a field that has consistently ranked among the top 10 most popular majors, is also experiencing shrinking salary projections for new graduates.
Other fields facing declines include:
- Humanities and Liberal Arts: From 2018 to 2023, the number of students majoring in liberal arts and humanities fell by nearly 30 percent. Area, ethnic, and civilization studies declined by 39 percent, while English language and literature dropped by 15 percent and foreign languages by 16 percent.
- Pure Sciences: Majors in chemistry and mathematics declined by 19 percent and 26 percent, respectively.
- Service Fields: Social work dropped by 18 percent, journalism by 31 percent, and pre-law and legal studies by 32 percent. Nutrition sciences fell by 39 percent, and treatment therapy professions declined by 41 percent.
- Education: Education administration and teaching saw an 8.8 percent drop during this period.
Fields Experiencing Growth
Despite the declines in some areas, other fields are experiencing growth in salary projections and student interest.
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- Engineering: Engineering graduates are projected to be the top paid, as their overall average is up 2.6% from $76,736 to $78,731. The highest-paid individual engineering majors-computer engineering ($82,565) and software engineering ($82,536)-also have the highest projected increases of the group at 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Double-digit increases in biomedical, aerospace, industrial and mechanical majors signal a robust stream of skills for advanced-manufacturing, climate-tech and space-systems roles.
- Computer Science: Computer sciences majors also show stability in their average salary projections year over year. The overall projection for the Class of 2025 is $76,251, up 2% from $74,778 for the Class of 2024. The individual reported majors are all projected to receive higher salaries, with increases of 1.7% for computer science majors, 1.8% for information sciences and systems majors, and 2.5% for software applications majors. The surge in computer-science enrollment-up 52 percent since 2018-translates into roughly one-fifth more software developers and cybersecurity analysts in the coming pipeline.
- Business: Class of 2025 business graduates have an average salary projection that is 2.1% higher than last year, raising it to $65,276. With the exception of management information systems majors, all reported individual business majors have larger average salary projections. Management information systems majors did, however, have the largest growth last year, when their average salary projection was up 7.5% to $73,695. It now falls at $71,556 making it one of the highest paid majors in the business category.
- Health Sciences: Nursing grew by 32%, public health by 29%, and biomedical engineering by a striking 48%. General medical and health services majors increased by 19%. Some of the most dramatic growth occurred in biology and mental health-adjacent fields. Neuroscience majors nearly doubled (+85%), while microbiology (+69%) and biochemical sciences (+63%) also saw exceptional gains. For example, while nurse-anesthetist and nurse-practitioner supply is set to expand by 15-22 percent, the ranks of occupational and physical therapists are on course to fall about 10 percent.
Factors Driving These Trends
Several factors contribute to the shifting landscape of college major salaries:
- Technological Advancements: The rise of technology and automation has increased the demand for graduates with skills in computer science, engineering, and data analysis. As artificial intelligence automates more technical tasks, human skills like creativity, empathy, and judgment may become more valuable, not less.
- Economic Shifts: The economy's increasing focus on technology and healthcare has led to higher demand for professionals in these fields. The rise in salary projections for Class of 2025 business graduates may be reflective of their high demand. Half of the top 10 bachelor’s degrees in demand fall in the business fields, with finance majors taking the top spot. Computer science also shares the top spot, with 67.1% of total respondents reporting plans to hire both majors.
- Demographic Changes: The aging of the population has increased the demand for healthcare professionals, leading to growth in health-related majors.
- Student Debt: The increasing cost of higher education and the burden of student loan debt are influencing students to choose majors that offer better pay and faster debt repayment. Gen Y and Gen Z have been burdened by extraordinary student loan debt and were sold a false version of the American dream when it comes to college. I do believe wages will increasingly dictate the direction students take. They'll need to find ways to pay off that debt more quickly, and that means moving toward majors that offer better pay to justify the cost of education.
- Changing Student Preferences: Students are pivoting into majors aligned to high paying careers. Many are flooding into technology, engineering, and advanced health sciences, even as they retreat from less lucrative majors like education, social work, and journalism - as well as the humanities more broadly.
Implications for Students and Colleges
The changing salary landscape has significant implications for students and colleges alike:
- Student Major Choices: With earnings potential continuing to shape educational decisions, students may increasingly opt for degrees in high-growth, high-pay sectors like computer science and engineering. Students are taking on five or six figures of debt, only to graduate into jobs that can't even cover rent in most cities.
- College Curriculum and Marketing: Colleges may need to address how they market liberal arts and social sciences degrees, perhaps emphasizing skills like communication, critical thinking, and adaptability-traits that, while less quantifiable than salary data, remain valued in a dynamic workforce.
- Workforce Development: Understanding these dynamics is essential for workforce planning, higher education strategy, and career guidance.
Long-Term Consequences for Society
The decline in certain majors, particularly in the humanities, education, and social services, could have long-term consequences for society:
- Shortages in Critical Professions: Some of the majors in decline portend future shortages in teaching, caregiving, and civic leadership, and may weaken society’s ability to navigate human challenges in an AI-driven world. A continued slide in education and humanities majors implies a 7-9 percent drop in new K-12 and special-education teachers, tightening shortages that districts already struggle to fill. Social-service talent contracts, pointing to a 4 percent dip in child- and family-social-worker supply-small in percentage terms, but critical given the shortages in these occupations.
- Erosion of Essential Skills: The decline in humanities enrollment reflects more than changing student preferences-it raises questions about the future role of these disciplines. Fields like history, literature, and philosophy have long developed critical thinking, ethical reasoning, and cultural understanding-skills that contribute to both personal growth and democratic life. As fewer students prepare for careers in teaching, caregiving, and civic leadership, critical sectors risk facing future shortages. Moreover, the erosion of the humanities - disciplines that foster creativity, critical thinking, ethical reasoning, and cultural understanding - could leave society less equipped to navigate the human dimensions of an increasingly automated, AI-driven world.
- Impact on Job Market: Shifts in students’ major choices are quietly reshaping the future occupational landscape. The computer and tech sector stands out as the biggest winner. The outlook is more troubling in the social services and education fields. Social work occupations are projected to shrink, with declines for Child and Family Social Workers (−3.6%) and Social Workers overall (−4.4%). Education faces even steeper challenges: fewer students are choosing teaching majors, leading to projected declines in Elementary and Middle School Teachers (−6.7%), Secondary School Teachers (−7.4%), and especially Special Education Teachers (−9.4%). In short, the shifting interests of college students are likely to amplify existing trends in the labor market-fueling growth in tech and engineering, straining the supply of educators and social workers, and accelerating the decline of legacy media roles.
Expert Opinions
Several experts have weighed in on these trends, offering valuable insights:
- Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group: "Higher education still remains important, but there is a noticeable shift toward trade jobs as many view college as too expensive. Gen Y and Gen Z have been burdened by extraordinary student loan debt and were sold a false version of the American dream when it comes to college. I do believe wages will increasingly dictate the direction students take. They'll need to find ways to pay off that debt more quickly, and that means moving toward majors that offer better pay to justify the cost of education."
- Alex Beene, Financial Literacy Instructor: "More generalized careers in those areas are often easier to layoff and bring in new entry level employees at a lower pay scale. If you majored in one of these areas, it's not time to hit the panic button, but it could be a tad more difficult finding the pay you want."
- HR Consultant Bryan Driscoll: "This, along with so many other data points, tells me the job market is broken. These specific fields are the ones we keep saying we value as a society. But we don't pay these workers like we do… Will this change what students study? Absolutely, and that's the real tragedy. We're forcing young people to pick careers based on survival, not passion or purpose. And when the only degrees that pay are the ones that feed the corporate machine, we all lose."
- Ryan, Parent of College-Aged Sons: "My boys aren't entering the job market I navigated; they're stepping into a world where the ability to reinvent yourself matters more than your major. The most valuable skills won't show up in these reports."
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